Peanut
Market Information Page
National Weekly Posted Price for Peanuts:
NEW PEANUT INFORMATION
November 22, 2010
Crop size reported by FSIS as of today is 1,956,872 tons with 5.5% of the southeast runner crop being classified as Seg II or Seg III. Contracting activity on the $550 in the southeast has been modest with some increase as commodity prices fell last week. Southwest activity remains nonexistent. Interest in the southwest is extremely weak even with a drop in prices of cotton on current futures market. Most forget that this acreage for 2010 was contracted off of 12 to 14 cents over loan (72 to 74 cents/pound) last January to March. Corn has somewhat stabilized from the fall in prices while soy beans and wheat have rebounded. The next 60 days will give us actual crop captured, surveys by NASS for March planting intention reports, and heartburn on how much of the runner crop is at risk to more aflatoxin developing in storage. High Oleic peanuts should be at a premium as the volume of HO runner with purity will be a minimum not seen since the 1990s when they came on the scene. Spanish and Virginia type should develop a premium in 2011 as they fight for a few acres from HO runners in Texas and the southwest. Valencia will likely have to hit the market hard and early to make sure there are enough acres committed to the type in Texas. Last year late prices in April and May left the Valencia market in a scavenging position since many acres had been contracted to cotton and other peanut types.
U.S. 2010 PEANUT CROP ESTIMATE – Source: USDA
Peanut Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2009 and Forecasted
November 1, 2010 – Approved November 9, 2010
Area Harvested
Yield
Production
State
2009
2010
2009
2010
2009
2009
Oct
Nov
Oct
Nov
1,000 Acres
Pounds/Acre
Short Tons
Alabama
150.0
187.0
3,300
2,600
2,600
247,500
243,100
243,100
Florida
105.0
135.0
3,200
3,000
3,200
168,000
202,500
216,000
Georgia
505.0
560.0
3,560
3,300
3,400
898,900
924,000
952,000
Mississippi
18.0
18.0
3,000
3,200
3,200
27,000
28,800
28,800
N. Mexico
7.0
10.0
3,100
2,900
2,900
10,850
14,500
14,500
N. Carolina
66.0
88.0
3,700
2,800
2,600
122,100
123,200
114,400
Oklahoma
13.0
20.0
3,300
3,200
3,200
21,450
32,000
32,000
S. Carolina
48.0
65.0
3,100
3,200
2,200
74,400
104,000
104,000
Texas
155.0
160.0
3,270
3,350
3,250
253,425
268,000
260,000
Virginia
12.0
18.0
3,700
2,000
1,800
22,200
18,000
16,200
US TOTAL
1,079.0
1,261.0
3,421
3,106
3,142
1,845,825
1,958,100
1,981,000
April 21, 2010
Just a few comments: what few acres will be planted on the south plains of Texas, rolling plains, and eastern New Mexico are nearing planting. The rainfall over the last weekend across the area may delay first plantings as most of the area received between 1.5 to over 3 inches. I expect acreage for Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma to be near 100,000 acres. This would be an all time record low, but heavy contracting on cotton and inactivity early in peanut contracting has lead to large acreage swinging to cotton.
Current or recent contract offers for 2010:
$575/ton Spanish seed contract
$550/ton Virginia seed contract
$525/ton Runner seed contract
2010 USA PEANUT ACREAGE issued March 31, 2010 by the USDA (*data converted by H. Georgalos)
U.S. Peanut growers intend to plant 1.20 million acres of peanuts in 2010, UP 8% from the previous year
U.S. Peanuts: Area Planted by State and U. S. (Estimated – March 31, 2010 NASS
State
Area Planted (1,000 acres)
2008
2009
2010
Percent 10/09
Alabama
195.0
155.0
170.0
110%
Florida
150.0
115.0
120.0
104%
Georgia
690.0
510.0
540.0
106%
Mississippi
22.0
21.0
25.0
119%
New Mexico
8.0
7.0
8.0
114%
North Carolina
98.0
67.0
80.0
119%
Oklahoma
19.0
14.0
13.0
93%
South Carolina
71.0
50.0
70.0
140%
Texas
257.0
165.0
155.0
94%
Virginia
24.0
12.0
20.0
167%
U.S. Total
1,534.0
1,116.0
1,201.0
108%
GEORGALOS PEANUT WORLD
U.S.Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007-2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
AL : 160.0 195.0 155.0 157.0 193.0 152.0
FL : 130.0 150.0 115.0 119.0 140.0 105.0
GA : 530.0 690.0 510.0 520.0 685.0 505.0
MS : 19.0 22.0 21.0 18.0 21.0 18.0
NM : 10.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.0 7.0
NC : 92.0 98.0 67.0 90.0 97.0 66.0
OK : 18.0 19.0 14.0 17.0 18.0 13.0
SC : 59.0 71.0 50.0 56.0 68.0 48.0
TX : 190.0 257.0 165.0 187.0 253.0 155.0
VA : 22.0 24.0 12.0 21.0 24.0 12.0
:
US : 1,230.0 1,534.0 1,116.0 1,195.0 1,507.0 1,081.0
:-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
:-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 : 2009
:-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: ----------- Pounds ---------- ---------- 1,000 Pounds ---------
:
AL : 2,550 3,500 3,100 400,350 675,500 471,200
FL : 2,700 3,200 3,200 321,300 448,000 336,000
GA : 3,120 3,400 3,530 1,622,400 2,329,000 1,782,650
MS : 3,300 3,900 3,000 59,400 81,900 54,000
NM : 3,200 3,200 3,100 32,000 25,600 21,700
NC : 2,900 3,700 3,700 261,000 358,900 244,200
OK : 3,400 3,500 3,300 57,800 63,000 42,900
SC : 3,100 3,900 3,100 173,600 265,200 148,800
TX : 3,700 3,300 3,500 691,900 834,900 542,500
VA : 2,500 3,350 3,700 52,500 80,400 44,400
:
US : 3,073 3,426 3,412 3,672,250 5,162,400 3,688,350
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
November 24, 2009
Tons to date reported 1,630,827 which is about 183,000 tons short of the USDA production estimate. The table below indicates tonnage graded by FSIS daily with non-reported dates smoothed which are seen by the flat areas in the data line. Based on the regression we should see a rapid fall in tonnage graded per day trailing to about the 1st of December with no weather complications. To date there are less than 10,000 tons of Seg II and Seg III peanuts.
November 23, 2009
Most states are finished or are close excluding Alabama and the tonnage is coming up short. The percent complete by USDA estimates are reported through this past weekend. See table below:
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted. USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted. USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted. NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 11/23/09 16:02 Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE Albany, GA 31708-1767 Page : 1 ` Predicted Harvested Acreage Total Graded State Tons % Harvested by USDA USDA Predicted Tons Tonnage Variance % Tonnage Variance ALABAMA 153,000 Total 203,036 59.0% 244,800 -41,764 -17.06% FLORIDA 105,000 Total 132,076 100.0% 157,500 -25,424 -16.14% GEORGIA 500,000 Total 805,073 88.0% 875,000 -69,927 -7.99% MISSISSIPPI 20,000 Total 3,454 75.0% 32,000 -28,546 -89.21% NEW MEXICO 7,000 Total 30,257 100.0% 11,200 19,057 170.15% N.CAROLINA 66,000 Total 125,557 90.0% 122,100 3,457 2.83% OKLAHOMA 12,000 Total 12,876 93.0% 19,800 -6,924 -34.97% S.CAROLINA 47,000 Total 55,087 100.0% 65,800 -10,713 -16.28% TEXAS 160,000 Total 228,766 98.0% 264,000 -35,234 -13.35% VIRGINIA 12,000 Total 18,550 100.0% 21,600 -3,050 -14.12% YTD Totals 1,614,732 78.0% 1,813,800 -199,068 -10.98% Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S. Graded Tons as of November 23, 2009 % Harvested by USDA Report November 16, 2009 North Carolina receives Tonnage from South Carolina in Grading Stations New Mexico Receives Tonnage from Texas in Grading Stations Alabama Receives Tonnage from Mississippi in Grading Stations Georgia Receives Tonnage from Florida in Grading Stations
November 19, 2009
Good weather across all the peanut production areas this week and for the coming weekend should allow much of the remaining crop to be cleaned up. The current graded tonnage for 2009 as of yesterday was 1,512,538 tons across all types. The totals by type to yesterday are: Valencia; 28,446 tons, Spanish; 29,423 tons, Virginia; 256,730 tons, and Runner; 1,197,939 tons. The total USDA predicted tonnage for 2009 is 1,813,800 leaving, based on USDA tonnage estimates, a combined average of 16.6% of the predicted crop left to harvest across states or 83.4% complete at of report 2 November 18. Being that it is November 19 and most states are reporting a high percentage complete as of November 16, I thought it would be useful to look at some predictions versus percent completes versus actual tonnage graded as of yesterday which are in the table below.
In examining the report below there are a number of items to consider. As mentioned at the bottom the table, New Mexico receives tons from Texas, North Carolina receives tons from Virginia and South Carolina, Alabama receives tons from Mississippi, and Georgia receives tons from Florida. Considering this 'noise' it is hard when a state is shown 99% or 100% complete to be sure if there is a surplus or shortage of tons. Therefore extrapolation, state by state, to determine variances has limited value due to the potential incorrect information it would provide.
In looking at the total tons graded as of the second Saturday report (Nov 16) of 1,480,479 and comparing that with the projected 78% complete for the same date we can see that there is a 331,321 ton difference which, based on tons, should put us at 81.6% complete instead of 78%. This can be looked at in two ways: 1) we are more advanced in percent complete moving into the poor quality and yield portion of the crop which is likely to further hasten this effect or 2) yields are higher than expected which are basically opposite of what the last USDA November adjustment indicated as a whole. My assessment is, based on shortages of heat units in late August, September, and early October in the Southeast due to frequent precipitation events and reports of overall lower than normal yields in the southwest that the percent complete is further along than even the 83.4%. This week should round up a significant portion of the remainder of the crop due to good weather which will give us more data to digest from graded tonnages. I expect the crop progress report as of Saturday to move substantially close to 90% complete.
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted. USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted. USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted. NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 10/26/09 16:02 Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE Albany, GA 31708-1767 Page : 1 ` Predicted Harvested Acreage Total Graded State Tons % Harvested by USDA USDA Predicted Tons Tonnage Variance % Tonnage Variance ALABAMA 153,000 Total 183,485 50.0% 244,800 -61,315 -25.05% FLORIDA 105,000 Total 126,040 93.0% 157,500 -31,460 -19.97% GEORGIA 500,000 Total 753,759 78.0% 875,000 -121,241 -13.86% MISSISSIPPI 20,000 Total 1,444 60.0% 32,000 -30,556 -95.49% NEW MEXICO 7,000 Total 29,970 81.0% 11,200 18,770 167.59% N.CAROLINA 66,000 Total 118,760 90.0% 122,100 -3,340 -2.74% OKLAHOMA 12,000 Total 10,818 78.0% 19,800 -8,982 -45.36% S.CAROLINA 47,000 Total 53,591 99.0% 65,800 -12,209 -18.55% TEXAS 160,000 Total 216,510 81.0% 264,000 -47,490 -17.99% VIRGINIA 12,000 Total 18,160 100.0% 21,600 -3,440 -15.93% YTD Totals 1,512,537 78.0% 1,813,800 -301,263 -16.61% Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S. Graded Tons as of November 18, 2009 % Harvested by USDA Report November 16, 2009 North Carolina recieves Tonnage from South Carolina in Grading Stations New Mexico Receives Tonnage from Texas in Grading Stations Alabama Receives Tonnage from Mississippi in Grading Stations Georgia Receives Tonnage from Florida in Grading Stations
November 9, 2009
Harvest completion reports for each production state are as follow: New Mexico; 73%, Oklahoma; 60%, Texas; 75% Alabama; 41%, Georgia; 70%, South Carolina 97%, Virginia; 99%, Mississippi; 70%, and Florida; 93%.
USDA crop report issued today reduced volume of tonnage by 5,400 from the October to November 2009 peanut crop estimate. The total estimated tons to be produced are 1,813,800.
Tropical Storm Ida has moved onshore and is expected, due to a high pressure ridge to move along the coastal regions in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida. High rainfall amounts are expected in the close proximity of the storm. See track pattern below. Rainfall amounts are highly variable and will have modest impact on the peanut crop with current predictions.
November 8, 2009
HURRICANE UPDATE: Hurricane Ida is expected, based on NOAA predictions, to pass just to the west of the major peanut production areas of the US in Alabama and Georgia. In doing so the NE quadrant of the storm, highest winds and rainfall, will directly hit the peanut production areas. Further, the storm is expected to come to rest right over the main production area on the current NOAA forecast. See comments below on stage of crop harvest. The November crop production numbers will be out this week from USDA.
November 7, 2009
Harvest continues in all production regions of the US. Weather has been very cooperative allowing graded tons by FSIS to reach 575,000 plus tons of all peanut market types as of today's report. This is a lagging indicator as has been mentioned before in that there will be another 3% plus in process at buying points. USDA state reports have increased percent harvested to: New Mexico; 63%, Texas; 54%, Oklahoma; 50%, Mississippi; 20%, Florida; 89%, Georgia; 55%, Virginia; 93%, and South Carolina; 84%.
The next big news is the impact that tropical storm Ida will have on the southeast production and yields in the next three to five days. Tropical Storm Ida is expected to the in the panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, and Southwest/central Georgia late Monday to Tuesday. See the map below:
October 30, 2009
Temperatures in the west Texas/New Mexico production region fell to a range of 24.0 to 27.5 degrees this morning giving us the first very hard freeze of the season. A significant portion of the crop was still exposed to these temperatures so time will tell how much damage is present.
The south central and southeast are preparing for more heavy rain which will further delay digging and thrashing. The Mississippi and southwest Alabama areas will be saturated again today and tonight while eastern Alabama and Georgia will have thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night. Little harvest weather is available between now and Saturday. Next week will clear and offer opportunities to get into the field once they are dry enough to dig and thrash.
October 29, 2009
A strong cold front dropping snow and sleet across the south plains of the west Texas peanut production region will lead to temperatures of 24 to 27 degrees tonight from the northern production counties to south of Seminole, Texas. Weather conditions for drying have not been the best for the last 10 days and it is likely there will be immature kernels which will freeze under temperatures this extreme. The last set pods which are smaller and contain less oil content will be the highest risk which will fall, when shelled, into the number one class size of runner peanuts.
USDA Stocks and Supply report released today indicated a 30% increase in peanut butter usage over same time last year. Other sectors of usage were up for the month excluding snacks. With increased usage, assuming the trend of last month continues, the stockpile of peanuts remaining in the 2009 crop to end the 2009/2010 crop marketing year is likely to fall uncomfortably low for many users.
No widespread activity on contracts has been present in any region other than the reduction in price from Golden Peanut Company a few weeks ago in the southeast.
Table 1. Stocks of Peanuts and Specified Products at Month's End,
Crop of 2009-2010 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : : Farmer Stock Equivalent
Month : Farmer : Shelled : Roasting :-----------------------------
Ending : Stock : Peanuts : Stock : Shelled : Total
: : 2/ : (In Shell) : Peanuts : 3/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Pounds
:
Aug 2009 : 1,037,510 562,934 53,413 748,702 1,839,625
Sep : 859,154 569,638 44,072 757,619 1,660,845
Oct :
Nov :
Dec :
:
Jan 2010 :
Feb :
Mar :
Apr :
May :
Jun :
Jul :
:
:
Sep 2008 : 606,434 304,275 31,662 404,686 1,042,782
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Excludes stocks on farms. Includes stocks owned by or held for account of
peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities. Farmer stock on
net weight basis.
2/ Includes shelled edible grades, shelled oil stock, and shelled seed
(untreated).
3/ Actual farmer stock, plus roasting stock, plus shelled peanuts X 1.33.
Table 2. Farmer Stock Peanuts, by Type, on Hand at Month's End,
Crop of 2009-2010 1/
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : Virginias : : : Total
Ending : and : Runners : Spanish : All
: Valencias : : : Types
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Pounds
:
Aug 2009 : 128,292 909,218 0 1,037,510
Sep : 111,628 747,418 108 859,154
Oct :
Nov :
Dec :
:
Jan 2010 :
Feb :
Mar :
Apr :
May :
Jun :
Jul :
:
:
Sep 2008 : 49,064 557,370 0 606,434
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Excludes stocks on farms. Includes stocks owned by or held for account o
peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities. Farmer stock
on net weight basis.
Table 3. Shelled Peanuts and Roasting Stock (In Shell) on Hand at Month's End,
Crop of 2009-2010 1/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Shelled Edibles 2/ : : :
Month :-----------------------------------: Shelled : :
Ending :Virginias: : : : Oil : Total : Roasting
: and :Runners :Spanish : Total :Stocks 3/:Shelled : Stock 4/
:Valencias: : : : : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Pounds
:
Aug 2009 : 116,717 398,115 23,539 538,371 24,563 562,934 53,413
Sep : 111,364 413,289 18,704 543,357 26,281 569,638 44,072
Oct :
Nov :
Dec :
:
Jan 2010 :
Feb :
Mar :
Apr :
May :
Jun :
Jul :
:
:
Sep 2008 : 58,003 187,677 28,753 274,433 29,842 304,275 31,662
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Excludes stocks on farms. Includes stocks owned by or held for account of
peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities. Farmer stock on
net weight basis.
2/ Shelled edible grades include blanched and shelled roasted peanuts converted
to a raw basis using conversion factors of 1.08 and 1.12, respectively.
3/ Includes straight run oil stock peanuts.
4/ Cleaned and unshelled.
October 27, 2009
Harvest in the southwest US is on the downhill slope as most fields are dug. Harvesting has been delayed due to light, but consistent moisture and high humidity, but weather conditions are expected to improve significantly over the next 4 to 14 days allowing harvest to proceed. Yields are variable. Where there was adequate to ample moisture and good agronomic practices yields were above average to very good. Where moisture was a limiting factor yields fell off substantially due to high heat and low rainfall in late May and early June.
The southeast crop has been slowed in maturation due to reduction in heat units and excessive rainfall for the last 30 days. This will make an impact on quality and therefore yield. Further, recent rainfall has aggravated disease because inability to spray pesticides within the 14 day harvest window. This window has been prolonged due to poor harvest conditions which has left the crop vulnerable to pathogens. Differential shrinkage of kernels and weight (grade and tonnage) should be expected in the last half of the crop as well as possible Seg II damage from disease and water damage.
As November fast approaches, as of today, only 41% of the crop is reported graded based on FSIS data. Since this is a lagging indicator, it is likely that the percent complete would be more near 45% to 47% for the US (assuming a yield of 1.85 million tons is correct). My assumption is that we are more complete than expected as this tonnage expectation will continue to shrink as we move forward into the late planted, poor yielding and grading peanuts. I would like to coin a phrase: "the disappearing tail effect". I believe, based on my experience, that the immature peanut shrinkage will be higher than expected causing the 'tail of the crop' to just disappear as we approach the last 4% to 7% further putting this crop in the record books for small size. This disappearing tail can be common in west Texas on cooler than normal years as, depending on the distribution of flowering and pod set, the last percentage of the crop is just sloughed and blows out the combine as pops and raisins as the growers try to increase grade by setting combine air more aggressively. At the buying points, as you tally the yield on each field, you realize they just are there as you move into the last 25% to 35% of the crop that is harvested.
Several things in the tonnage report are worth noting: 1) spanish are short, 2) valencia are short, 3) virginia are likely short, and runner tons are very slow to come in and be reported. See the current report after the last comments.
The purchasing side of the industry sits and waits to buy kernels as the price slowly rises when they should be actively contracting every ton they need to make sure all internal needs are met. Once again, they will be caught betting that it will be bigger than it is as China, India, and Argentine crops reports indicate a looming world shortage, not just for peanuts, but high protein crops in general. This outside demand of importation of soybeans, a weakening US dollar, and hedging on commodities in the stock market will likely stoke a price run not seen since 2006/2007 or 2002/2003 crops.
Some simple math on the chart below (if USDA percent complete is anywhere close to correct) shows this crop will come up short.
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted. USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted. USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted. NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 10/26/09 16:02 Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE P.O. Box 71767, Albany GA 31708-1767 Page : 1 Predicted Harvested Acreage Current Total Tons Total State Tons % Threshed by USDA October 25th USDA Predicted Tons ALABAMA 153,000 COM 3,165 STR 39,319 RCT 34,733 77,217 25.0% 252,450 FLORIDA 105,000 COM 9,984 STR 31,454 RCT 31,139 80,577 60.0% 162,750 GEORGIA 500,000 COM 10,947 STR 194,290 RCT 189,959 395,196 44.0% 875,000 MISSISSIPPI 20,000 COM 0 STR 0 RCT 29 29 5.0% 35,000 NEW MEXICO 7,000 COM 18821 0 *Most tonnage comes from Texas STR 18,821 RCT 0 18,821 63.0% 11,200 N.CAROLINA 66,000 COM 429 STR 41,011 RCT 18,204 59,645 68.0% 115,500 OKLAHOMA 12,000 COM 0 STR 795 RCT 0 795 36.0% 20,400 S.CAROLINA 47,000 COM 39 STR 22,927 RCT 8,372 31,399 76.0% 70,500 TEXAS 160,000 COM 337 *3,185 tons of NM Valencia STR 54,408 RCT 36,189 90,933 44.0% 256,000 VIRGINIA 12,000 COM 251 STR 5,608 RCT 3,033 8,892 76.0% 20,400 YTD Totals 763,504 USDA wieghted av % Cplte = 47 1,819,200 Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S.
October 14, 2009
Dollar weakens, will this spur export growth? The Chinese, Argentine, and Indian peanut crop reports continue to be bleak. Tonnage reports are worse than initial information indicated on production. This will likely leave China as an importer of either beans or peanuts to supply their needs (depending on price), as well as leaving the export market short with no place, but the 2008 US crop carryover to cover the short production position. The US crop continues to fight weather issues hampering maturity and harvest in the southeast and just harvest in the southwest. The current FSIS report indicates about 21% of the crop has been harvested based on USDA crop expectations for 2009.
October 9, 2009
USDA crop report for October indicates a 1% decline in predicted tonnage. NOAA weather reports for the next 6 to 14 days indicate high probabilities of southeast temperatures being below normal with higher than normal rainfall probabilities.
Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and
United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009 : 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
AL : 160.0 195.0 155.0 157.0 193.0 153.0
FL : 130.0 150.0 115.0 119.0 140.0 105.0
GA : 530.0 690.0 505.0 520.0 685.0 500.0
MS : 19.0 22.0 21.0 18.0 21.0 20.0
NM : 10.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.0 7.0
NC : 92.0 98.0 67.0 90.0 97.0 66.0
OK : 18.0 19.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 12.0
SC : 59.0 71.0 49.0 56.0 68.0 47.0
TX : 190.0 257.0 165.0 187.0 253.0 160.0
VA : 22.0 24.0 12.0 21.0 24.0 12.0
:
US : 1,230.0 1,534.0 1,109.0 1,195.0 1,507.0 1,082.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : 2009 : : :
: 2007 : 2008 1/ :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 1/ : 2009
: : : Sep 1 : Oct 1 : : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds --------
:
AL : 2,550 3,500 3,300 3,300 400,350 675,500 504,900
FL : 2,700 3,200 3,100 3,100 321,300 448,000 325,500
GA : 3,120 3,400 3,500 3,500 1,622,400 2,329,000 1,750,000
MS : 3,300 3,900 3,500 3,500 59,400 81,900 70,000
NM : 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 32,000 25,600 22,400
NC : 2,900 3,700 3,400 3,500 261,000 358,900 231,000
OK : 3,400 3,500 3,200 3,400 57,800 63,000 40,800
SC : 3,100 3,900 3,300 3,000 173,600 265,200 141,000
TX : 3,700 3,300 3,400 3,200 691,900 834,900 512,000
VA : 2,500 3,350 3,400 3,400 52,500 80,400 40,800
:
US : 3,073 3,426 3,397 3,363 3,672,250 5,162,400 3,638,400
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/2008 Revised.
October 7, 2009
The west Texas production area received its first freeze of the year on October 2, 2009. This freeze was isolated to the state line area of Yoakum county. Areas away from the higher elevation along the state line were in the 35 to 37 degree range for the same date. Some fields bronzed on the surface of the leaves where the freeze penetrated the canopy. Harvesting continues on the remainder of the peanuts in the area with the bulk of the runner crop to be dug.
The southeast crop continues on a slow harvest pace with much of the peanuts being planted after the normal planting schedules pushing back digging. Heat unit accumulations have slowed the crop and continued wet, cloudy weather has complicated the problem further. Forecasts for the area indicate moderate chances of rain through early next week. As of today less than 10% of the US peanut crop has been harvested and graded (source: FSIS grading reports) compared with the total crop graded last year. The report can be viewed at: http://www.gafsis.com/tonreport.asp which also has links to all other years of peanut crops.
The acreage in the V/C has been reduced as well as Spanish in the southwest. These crops have, for the most part, been contracted in the last few weeks with prices on Spanish rising to $550.00 per ton. Runner prices remain flat due to carryover from 2008 crop.
Supplies in the world market have shortened considerable due to lower or poor production in India, Argentina, and China. This will likely strengthen the runner market as carryover from 2008 is absorbed. When the US harvest picture becomes clearer in volume and quality it is likely the market will begin to actually feel the shortage of the 2009 crop causing prices to rise. The current USDA projection, based on predicted yields, will put the 2009 crop near the same carry over present at the end of the 2007 crop marketing year where runner prices reached as high as $700.00 per ton.
September 21, 2009
Spanish type peanuts are being dug this week as the first major cold spell of the season approaches. Temperatures on the high elevation areas along the state line may approach frost level, but with the early, warm soil temperatures a frost is very unlikely that would do any damage. Virginia type peanuts will start being dug the end of this week. Some early runners will also be dug the end of this week. Yields so far are average to good on Valencia while no Spanish yields have been reported.
Current acreage reported by USDA for Texas is 160,000. This will not sustain all types for all needs of each sheller represented in the region. V/C acreage has been greatly reduced and yields are not expected to be enough to remotely compensate for the differential. Southeast acreage is down also. Carry over supply will shrink quickly under these conditions. All other major origins in the world are reporting moderate to dramatic acreage and/or production reductions (China, India, Argentina, and US). This will shrink the world supply and put the peanut crop in a short market position. Current kernel prices are on the rise. No contract offers are reported at this time.
September 10, 2009
Harvest continues on Valencia type peanut. First Spanish types are nearing and Virginia types are 14 to 18 days away. Runner follow the Virginia type. Pricing activity has increased following harvest beginning and reports from USDA indicating acreage changes or certifications from various states. The best prices currently being offered are $560/ton on Virginia type. Trail balloon have been floated on $480 to $500 for runner types, but no offers are currently on the table.
The biggest impacts in the southwest are the split of acreage by type, number of shellers present, and lack of tonnage produced for total needed to supply shelling capacity.
USDA crop report indicated a rise in acreage overall. Tonnage numbers still place the crop in a short fall position by mid next year.
Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and
United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted September 1, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Area Planted : Area Harvested
State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------
: 2007 : 2008 : 2009 1/ : 2007 : 2008 : 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Acres
:
AL : 160.0 195.0 155.0 157.0 193.0 153.0
FL : 130.0 150.0 115.0 119.0 140.0 105.0
GA : 530.0 690.0 505.0 520.0 685.0 500.0
MS : 19.0 22.0 21.0 18.0 21.0 20.0
NM : 10.0 8.0 7.0 10.0 8.0 7.0
NC : 92.0 98.0 67.0 90.0 97.0 66.0
OK : 18.0 19.0 13.0 17.0 18.0 12.0
SC : 59.0 71.0 49.0 56.0 68.0 47.0
TX : 190.0 257.0 165.0 187.0 253.0 160.0
VA : 22.0 24.0 12.0 21.0 24.0 12.0
:
US : 1,230.0 1,534.0 1,109.0 1,195.0 1,507.0 1,082.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Yield : Production
State :---------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : 2009 : : :
: 2007 : 2008 :-------------------: 2007 : 2008 : 2009
: : : Aug 1 : Sep 1 : : :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: -------------- Pounds ------------- -------- 1,000 Pounds --------
:
AL : 2,550 3,300 3,300 3,300 400,350 636,900 504,900
FL : 2,700 3,200 3,100 3,100 321,300 448,000 325,500
GA : 3,120 3,400 3,300 3,500 1,622,400 2,329,000 1,750,000
MS : 3,300 3,900 3,500 3,500 59,400 81,900 70,000
NM : 3,200 3,200 3,200 3,200 32,000 25,600 22,400
NC : 2,900 3,700 3,300 3,400 261,000 358,900 224,400
OK : 3,400 3,500 3,200 3,200 57,800 63,000 38,400
SC : 3,100 3,900 3,400 3,300 173,600 265,200 155,100
TX : 3,700 3,400 3,400 3,400 691,900 860,200 544,000
VA : 2,500 3,300 3,400 3,400 52,500 79,200 40,800
:
US : 3,073 3,416 3,301 3,397 3,672,250 5,147,900 3,675,500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 2009.
September 4, 2009
West Texas began it's harvest the last few days of August 2009. The Valencia crop has appeared to be ahead of schedule most of the season, but like many experienced peanut individuals we know that doesn't always translate into reality. This year it did and is going to follow suit with the Virginia and Spanish types. Several Gregory variety fields are scraping (blasting for those who wish to use that term) in the mid 60% to near 70% range (black mesocarp). With the high percentage of heat units accumulating now this will likely translate into a digging date late next week. Spanish fields have shown maturity levels at 70% or slightly higher in some cases. These fields will likely be ready to dig in the next 10 to 15 days. Runner fields have begun showing just a few mature pods per plant. With normal weather conditions in September the harvest of runner peanuts should begin the last week of September.
The first yields on Valencia fields (estimate only) are between 3,500 and 4,000 pounds per acre. The harvest should go smoothly as the amount of equipment available related to the amount of peanuts is in favor of a smooth harvest.
The best prices being floated for fall high oleic runner type peanuts (no contract yet) is $500.00. No discussion is present on uncontracted Virginia or Spanish type. It is quite easy to determine that there is going to be a massive shortage of Spanish and significant shortage of high oleic runners. The fact that so many Valencia are being grown in the West Texas region and replacing other peanut acreage will have a significant impact on Spanish and modest impact on Virginia types. The reduction in total acreage for runner type is the largest factor which will reduce available tonnage. It is likely that the Texas acreage will shrink again slightly when the certified acreage report is released in the USDA crop report in another week. This trend may also be present in the southeast and V/C.
August 14, 2009
The crop is progressing very well in all four types. Rainfall has been scattered to general across the area due to the effect of El Nino. In trying to be conservative, it is the best crop I have ever seen at this juncture in development in west Texas. Of course, there is always opportunity for a spike in heat or a prolonged cold period before harvest which would reduce the current yield potential, but time is running out for the heat impact and NOAA is not forecasting for this event to occur.
Peanut vines have flowered and pegged out the ends of the limbs and are now re-flowering at original fruiting sites that already have full size pods on them. Early this week the Valencia peanuts were showing first set pods scraping dark brown to black. There are still many pods to finish and then mature so I don't believe harvest could be that much earlier than a normal period, but this is very unusual in my experience.
Disease is very limited and has been controlled in most instances with one application of a soil borne or foliar fungicide. Quality is likely to be good due to the development of the crop.
USDA crop reports:
Gr Lg 6 (8-09)
Peanut Stocks
and Processing
National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C.
Released August 28, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture. For information on "Peanut Stocks and Processing" call Anthony Prillaman at (202) 720-7688, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.
Shelled Edible Grade Season to Date Utilization Up 2 Percent from Last Year Peanut Stocks in Commercial Storage Totaled 2.13 Billion Pounds
Peanut stocks reported in commercial storage on July 31, 2009 totaled
2.13 billion pounds of equivalent farmer stock, compared with 1.03 billion pounds a year ago. This total includes 1.36 billion pounds of actual farmer stock.
Shelled peanuts on hand totaled 710 million pounds of farmer stock equivalent. Roasting stock totaled 60.5 million pounds.
Shelled peanut stocks totaled 534 million pounds of which 511 million pounds were edible grades and 22.3 million pounds were oil stocks. Edible grade stocks by type included 102 million pounds of Virginias and Valencias,
383 million pounds of Runners, and 26.0 million pounds of Spanish.
July millings totaled 296 million pounds. Millings by type were 59.6 million pounds of Virginias and Valencias, 236 million pounds of Runners, and 800,000 pounds of Spanish.
Commercial processors utilized 173 million pounds of shelled edible grade peanuts during July. Utilization by type was 106 million pounds for all peanut butter products, 36.1 million pounds for peanut candy, and
29.2 million pounds for snack peanuts. Crushing for oil and cake and meal totaled 21.0 million pounds during the month.
Deliveries under the Government Domestic Feeding and Child Nutrition Programs amounted to 2.32 million pounds of peanut butter and 51,840 pounds of roasted peanuts during July.
Stocks of treated seed on hand July 31, 2009 totaled 592,000 pounds, compared with 806,000 pounds on June 30, 2009. Of the July total, 452,000 pounds were Virginias and Valencias, 89,000 pounds were Runners, and 51,000 pounds were Spanish. June stocks of treated seed included 570,000 pounds of Virginias and Valencias, 215,000 pounds of Runners, and 21,000 pounds of Spanish.
Stocks estimates refer to July 31, 2009. All other data are for the month of July.
Table 1. Stocks of Peanuts and Specified Products at Month's End,
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : : Farmer Stock Equivalent
Month : Farmer : Shelled : Roasting :-----------------------------
Ending : Stock : Peanuts : Stock : Shelled : Total
: : 2/ : (In Shell) : Peanuts : 3/
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Pounds
:
Aug 2008 : 123,790 410,473 48,944 545,929 718,663
Sep : 606,434 304,275 31,662 404,686 1,042,782
Oct : 2,693,872 361,071 38,395 480,224 3,212,491
Nov : 3,692,870 420,589 49,318 559,383 4,301,571
Dec : 3,698,424 462,024 54,122 614,492 4,367,038
:
Jan 2009 : 3,345,234 509,758 51,187 677,978 4,074,399
Feb : 3,019,374 550,458 67,118 732,109 3,818,601
Mar : 2,643,472 550,637 72,501 732,347 3,448,320
Apr : 2,316,578 522,250 74,210 694,593 3,085,381
May : 2,013,706 507,185 75,452 674,556 2,763,714
Jun : 1,652,732 546,230 68,273 726,486 2,447,491
Jul : 1,359,950 533,581 60,487 709,663 2,130,100
:
:
Jul 2008 : 346,948 471,101 57,795 626,564 1,031,307
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Excludes stocks on farms. Includes stocks owned by or held for account of
peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities. Farmer stock on
net weight basis.
2/ Includes shelled edible grades, shelled oil stock, and shelled seed
(untreated).
3/ Actual farmer stock, plus roasting stock, plus shelled peanuts X 1.33.
Table 2. Farmer Stock Peanuts, by Type, on Hand at Month's End,
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : Virginias : : : Total
Ending : and : Runners : Spanish : All
: Valencias : : : Types
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 Pounds
:
Aug 2008 : 25,376 98,414 0 123,790
Sep : 49,064 557,370 0 606,434
Oct : 505,008 2,153,536 35,328 2,693,872
Nov : 646,738 2,973,364 72,768 3,692,870
Dec : 599,628 3,025,006 73,790 3,698,424
:
Jan 2009 : 537,222 2,741,658 66,354 3,345,234
Feb : 466,274 2,493,010 60,090 3,019,374
Mar : 405,384 2,190,784 47,304 2,643,472
Apr : 337,690 1,950,416 28,472 2,316,578
May : 280,652 1,709,938 23,116 &n
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