Peanut Market Information Page

National Weekly Posted Price for Peanuts:

doc@cropdocs.com

NEW PEANUT INFORMATION

 

November 22, 2010

Crop size reported by FSIS as of today is 1,956,872 tons with 5.5% of the southeast runner crop being classified as Seg II or Seg III.  Contracting activity on the $550 in the southeast has been modest with some increase as commodity prices fell last week.  Southwest activity remains nonexistent.  Interest in the southwest is extremely weak even with a drop in prices of cotton on current futures market.  Most forget that this acreage for 2010 was contracted off of 12 to 14 cents over loan (72 to 74 cents/pound) last January to March.   Corn has somewhat stabilized from the fall in prices while soy beans and wheat have rebounded.  The next 60 days will give us actual crop captured, surveys by NASS for March planting intention reports, and heartburn on how much of the runner crop is at risk to more aflatoxin developing in storage.  High Oleic peanuts should be at a premium as the volume of HO runner with purity will be a minimum not seen since the 1990s when they came on the scene.  Spanish and Virginia type should develop a premium in 2011 as they fight for a few acres from HO runners in Texas and the southwest.  Valencia will likely have to hit the market hard and early to make sure there are enough acres committed to the type in Texas.  Last year late prices in April and May left the Valencia market in a scavenging position since many acres had been contracted to cotton and other peanut types.

 

U.S. 2010 PEANUT CROP ESTIMATE – Source: USDA

Peanut Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2009 and Forecasted

November 1, 2010 – Approved November 9, 2010

 

Area Harvested

Yield

Production

State

2009

2010

2009

2010

2009

2009

Oct

Nov

Oct

Nov

 

1,000 Acres

Pounds/Acre

Short Tons

Alabama

150.0

187.0

3,300

2,600

2,600

247,500

243,100

243,100

Florida

105.0

135.0

3,200

3,000

3,200

168,000

202,500

216,000

Georgia

505.0

560.0

3,560

3,300

3,400

898,900

924,000

952,000

Mississippi

18.0

18.0

3,000

3,200

3,200

27,000

28,800

28,800

N. Mexico

7.0

10.0

3,100

2,900

2,900

10,850

14,500

14,500

N. Carolina

66.0

88.0

3,700

2,800

2,600

122,100

123,200

114,400

Oklahoma

13.0

20.0

3,300

3,200

3,200

21,450

32,000

32,000

S. Carolina

48.0

65.0

3,100

3,200

2,200

74,400

104,000

104,000

Texas

155.0

160.0

3,270

3,350

3,250

253,425

268,000

260,000

Virginia

12.0

18.0

3,700

2,000

1,800

22,200

18,000

16,200

US TOTAL

1,079.0

1,261.0

3,421

3,106

3,142

1,845,825

1,958,100

1,981,000

 

April 21, 2010

Just a few comments:  what few acres will be planted on the south plains of Texas, rolling plains, and eastern New Mexico are nearing planting. The rainfall over the last weekend across the area may delay first plantings as most of the area received between 1.5 to over 3 inches.  I expect acreage for Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma to be near 100,000 acres.  This would be an all time record low, but heavy contracting on cotton and inactivity early in peanut contracting has lead to large acreage swinging to cotton. 

Current or recent contract offers for 2010:

$575/ton Spanish seed contract

$550/ton Virginia seed contract

$525/ton Runner seed contract

2010 USA PEANUT ACREAGE issued March 31, 2010 by the USDA (*data converted by H. Georgalos)

U.S. Peanut growers intend to plant 1.20 million acres of peanuts in 2010, UP 8% from the previous year

 

U.S. Peanuts:  Area Planted by State and U. S. (Estimated – March 31, 2010 NASS

State

Area Planted   (1,000 acres)

2008

2009

2010

Percent 10/09

Alabama

195.0

155.0

170.0

110%

Florida

150.0

115.0

120.0

104%

Georgia

690.0

510.0

540.0

106%

Mississippi

22.0

21.0

25.0

119%

New Mexico

8.0

7.0

8.0

114%

North Carolina

98.0

67.0

80.0

119%

Oklahoma

19.0

14.0

13.0

93%

South Carolina

71.0

50.0

70.0

140%

Texas

257.0

165.0

155.0

94%

Virginia

24.0

12.0

20.0

167%

U.S. Total

1,534.0

1,116.0

1,201.0

108%

 

 

GEORGALOS PEANUT WORLD

 U.S. Peanut Crop Production Report - January Annual 2010

 

U.S.Peanuts: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2007-2009

             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :           Area Planted            :          Area Harvested          

  State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :   2007    :   2008    :   2009    :   2007    :   2008    :   2009   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :                              1,000 Acres                             

        :                                                                      

AL      :    160.0       195.0       155.0        157.0       193.0       152.0

FL      :    130.0       150.0       115.0        119.0       140.0       105.0

GA      :    530.0       690.0       510.0        520.0       685.0       505.0

MS      :     19.0        22.0        21.0         18.0        21.0        18.0

NM      :     10.0         8.0         7.0         10.0         8.0         7.0

NC      :     92.0        98.0        67.0         90.0        97.0        66.0

OK      :     18.0        19.0        14.0         17.0        18.0        13.0

SC      :     59.0        71.0        50.0         56.0        68.0        48.0

TX      :    190.0       257.0       165.0        187.0       253.0       155.0

VA      :     22.0        24.0        12.0         21.0        24.0        12.0

        :                                                                      

US      :  1,230.0     1,534.0     1,116.0      1,195.0     1,507.0     1,081.0

        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :               Yield               :            Production            

        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :   2007    :   2008    :   2009    :   2007    :   2008    :   2009   

        :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :    ----------- Pounds ----------    ---------- 1,000 Pounds ---------

        :                                                                      

AL      :    2,550       3,500       3,100      400,350     675,500     471,200

FL      :    2,700       3,200       3,200      321,300     448,000     336,000

GA      :    3,120       3,400       3,530    1,622,400   2,329,000   1,782,650

MS      :    3,300       3,900       3,000       59,400      81,900      54,000

NM      :    3,200       3,200       3,100       32,000      25,600      21,700

NC      :    2,900       3,700       3,700      261,000     358,900     244,200

OK      :    3,400       3,500       3,300       57,800      63,000      42,900

SC      :    3,100       3,900       3,100      173,600     265,200     148,800

TX      :    3,700       3,300       3,500      691,900     834,900     542,500

VA      :    2,500       3,350       3,700       52,500      80,400      44,400

        :                                                                      

US      :    3,073       3,426       3,412    3,672,250   5,162,400   3,688,350

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

November 24, 2009

Tons to date reported 1,630,827 which is about 183,000 tons short of the USDA production estimate.  The table below indicates tonnage graded by FSIS daily with non-reported dates smoothed which are seen by the flat areas in the data line.  Based on the regression we should see a rapid fall in tonnage graded per day trailing to about the 1st of December with no weather complications.  To date there are less than 10,000 tons of Seg II and Seg III peanuts.

November 23, 2009

Most states are finished or are close excluding Alabama and the tonnage is coming up short.  The percent complete by USDA estimates are reported through this past weekend.  See table below:

USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted.          
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted.          
USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted.        
NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 11/23/09 16:02    
Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE        
ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE Albany, GA 31708-1767 Page : 1 `      
  Predicted Harvested Acreage Total Graded State Tons % Harvested by USDA USDA Predicted Tons Tonnage Variance % Tonnage Variance
ALABAMA 153,000          
Total   203,036 59.0% 244,800 -41,764 -17.06%
FLORIDA 105,000          
Total   132,076 100.0% 157,500 -25,424 -16.14%
GEORGIA 500,000          
Total   805,073 88.0% 875,000 -69,927 -7.99%
MISSISSIPPI 20,000          
Total   3,454 75.0% 32,000 -28,546 -89.21%
NEW MEXICO 7,000          
Total   30,257 100.0% 11,200 19,057 170.15%
N.CAROLINA 66,000          
Total   125,557 90.0% 122,100 3,457 2.83%
OKLAHOMA 12,000          
Total   12,876 93.0% 19,800 -6,924 -34.97%
S.CAROLINA 47,000          
Total   55,087 100.0% 65,800 -10,713 -16.28%
TEXAS 160,000          
Total   228,766 98.0% 264,000 -35,234 -13.35%
VIRGINIA 12,000          
Total   18,550 100.0% 21,600 -3,050 -14.12%
             
YTD Totals   1,614,732 78.0% 1,813,800 -199,068 -10.98%
Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S.        
Graded Tons as of November 23, 2009          
% Harvested by USDA Report November 16, 2009          
             
North Carolina receives Tonnage from South Carolina in Grading Stations        
New Mexico Receives Tonnage from Texas in Grading Stations        
Alabama Receives Tonnage from Mississippi in Grading Stations        
Georgia Receives Tonnage from Florida in Grading Stations        
             
             

 

November 19, 2009

Good weather across all the peanut production areas this week and for the coming weekend should allow much of the remaining crop to be cleaned up.   The current graded tonnage for 2009 as of yesterday was 1,512,538 tons across all types.  The totals by type to yesterday are:  Valencia; 28,446 tons, Spanish; 29,423 tons, Virginia; 256,730 tons, and Runner; 1,197,939 tons.  The total USDA predicted tonnage for 2009 is 1,813,800 leaving, based on USDA tonnage estimates, a combined average of 16.6% of the predicted crop left to harvest across states or 83.4% complete at of report 2 November 18.  Being that it is November 19 and most states are reporting a high percentage complete as of November 16, I thought it would be useful to look at some predictions versus percent completes versus actual tonnage graded as of yesterday which are in the table below.

In examining the report below there are a number of items to consider.  As mentioned at the bottom the table, New Mexico receives tons from Texas, North Carolina receives tons from Virginia and South Carolina, Alabama receives tons from Mississippi, and Georgia receives tons from Florida.  Considering this 'noise' it is hard when a state is shown 99% or 100% complete to be sure if there is a surplus or shortage of tons.  Therefore extrapolation, state by state, to determine variances has limited value due to the potential incorrect information it would provide. 

In looking at the total tons graded as of the second Saturday report (Nov 16) of 1,480,479 and comparing that with the projected 78% complete for the same date we can see that there is a 331,321 ton difference which, based on tons, should put us at 81.6% complete instead of 78%.  This can be looked at in two ways: 1) we are more advanced in percent complete moving into the poor quality and yield portion of the crop which is likely to further hasten this effect or 2) yields are higher than expected which are basically opposite of what the last USDA November adjustment indicated as a whole.  My assessment is, based on shortages of heat units in late August, September, and early October in the Southeast due to frequent precipitation events and reports of overall lower than normal yields in the southwest that the percent complete is further along than even the 83.4%.  This week should round up a significant portion of the remainder of the crop due to good weather which will give us more data to digest from graded tonnages.  I expect the crop progress report as of Saturday to move substantially close to 90% complete.

USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted.          
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted.          
USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted.        
NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 10/26/09 16:02    
Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE        
ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE Albany, GA 31708-1767 Page : 1 `      
  Predicted Harvested Acreage Total Graded State Tons % Harvested by USDA USDA Predicted Tons Tonnage Variance % Tonnage Variance
ALABAMA 153,000          
Total   183,485 50.0% 244,800 -61,315 -25.05%
FLORIDA 105,000          
Total   126,040 93.0% 157,500 -31,460 -19.97%
GEORGIA 500,000          
Total   753,759 78.0% 875,000 -121,241 -13.86%
MISSISSIPPI 20,000          
Total   1,444 60.0% 32,000 -30,556 -95.49%
NEW MEXICO 7,000          
Total   29,970 81.0% 11,200 18,770 167.59%
N.CAROLINA 66,000          
Total   118,760 90.0% 122,100 -3,340 -2.74%
OKLAHOMA 12,000          
Total   10,818 78.0% 19,800 -8,982 -45.36%
S.CAROLINA 47,000          
Total   53,591 99.0% 65,800 -12,209 -18.55%
TEXAS 160,000          
Total   216,510 81.0% 264,000 -47,490 -17.99%
VIRGINIA 12,000          
Total   18,160 100.0% 21,600 -3,440 -15.93%
             
YTD Totals   1,512,537 78.0% 1,813,800 -301,263 -16.61%
Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S.        
Graded Tons as of November 18, 2009          
% Harvested by USDA Report November 16, 2009          
             
North Carolina recieves Tonnage from South Carolina in Grading Stations        
New Mexico Receives Tonnage from Texas in Grading Stations        
Alabama Receives Tonnage from Mississippi in Grading Stations        
Georgia Receives Tonnage from Florida in Grading Stations        
             
             

 

 

November 9, 2009

Harvest completion reports for each production state are as follow:  New Mexico; 73%, Oklahoma; 60%, Texas; 75% Alabama; 41%, Georgia; 70%, South Carolina 97%, Virginia; 99%, Mississippi; 70%,  and Florida; 93%. 

USDA crop report issued today reduced volume of tonnage by 5,400 from the October to November 2009 peanut crop estimate.  The total estimated tons to be produced are 1,813,800.

Tropical Storm Ida has moved onshore and is expected, due to a high pressure ridge to move along the coastal regions in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.  High rainfall amounts are expected in the close proximity of the storm.  See track pattern below.  Rainfall amounts are highly variable and will have modest impact on the peanut crop with current predictions.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

SPC Products OverviewNovember 8, 2009

HURRICANE UPDATE:  Hurricane Ida is expected, based on NOAA predictions, to pass just to the west of the major peanut production areas of the US in Alabama and Georgia.  In doing so the NE quadrant of the storm, highest winds and rainfall, will directly hit the peanut production areas.   Further, the storm is expected to come to rest right over the main production area on the current NOAA forecast.  See comments below on stage of crop harvest.  The November crop production numbers will be out this week from USDA.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

November 7, 2009

Harvest continues in all production regions of the US.  Weather has been very cooperative allowing graded tons by FSIS to reach 575,000 plus tons of all peanut market types as of today's report.  This is a lagging indicator as has been mentioned before in that there will be another 3% plus in process at buying points.  USDA state reports have increased percent harvested to: New Mexico; 63%, Texas; 54%, Oklahoma; 50%, Mississippi; 20%, Florida; 89%, Georgia; 55%, Virginia; 93%, and South Carolina; 84%.

 

The next  big news is the impact that tropical storm Ida will have on the southeast production and yields in the next three to five days.  Tropical Storm Ida is expected to the in the panhandle of Florida, southeast Alabama, and Southwest/central Georgia late Monday to Tuesday.  See the map below:

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

October 30, 2009

Temperatures in the west Texas/New Mexico production region fell to a range of 24.0 to 27.5 degrees this morning giving us the first very hard freeze of the season. A significant portion of the crop was still exposed to these temperatures so time will tell how much damage is present.

The south central and southeast are preparing for more heavy rain which will further delay digging and thrashing.  The Mississippi and southwest Alabama areas will be saturated again today and tonight while eastern Alabama and Georgia will have thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.  Little harvest weather is available between now and Saturday.  Next week will clear  and offer opportunities to get into the field once they are dry enough to dig and thrash.

October 29, 2009

A strong cold front dropping snow and sleet across the south plains of the west Texas peanut production region will lead to temperatures of 24 to 27 degrees tonight from the northern production counties to south of Seminole, Texas.  Weather conditions for drying have not been the best for the last 10 days and it is likely there will be immature kernels which will freeze under temperatures this extreme.  The last set pods which are smaller and contain less oil content will be the highest risk which will fall, when shelled, into the number one class size of runner peanuts.

USDA Stocks and Supply report released today indicated a 30% increase in peanut butter usage over same time last year.  Other sectors of usage were up for the month excluding snacks.  With increased usage, assuming the trend of last month continues, the stockpile of peanuts remaining in the 2009 crop to end the 2009/2010 crop marketing year is likely to fall uncomfortably low for many users. 

No widespread activity on contracts has been present in any region other than the reduction in price from Golden Peanut Company a few weeks ago in the southeast.

 

       Table 1.  Stocks of Peanuts and Specified Products at Month's End,      

                              Crop of 2009-2010 1/                             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :           :           :            :   Farmer Stock Equivalent  

    Month    :  Farmer   :  Shelled  :  Roasting  :-----------------------------

    Ending   :   Stock   :  Peanuts  :   Stock    :   Shelled    :    Total    

             :           :    2/     : (In Shell) :   Peanuts    :      3/     

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :                           1,000 Pounds                           

             :                                                                 

Aug  2009    : 1,037,510    562,934      53,413       748,702       1,839,625  

Sep          :   859,154    569,638      44,072       757,619       1,660,845  

Oct          :                                                                 

Nov          :                                                                 

Dec          :                                                                 

             :                                                                 

Jan  2010    :                                                                 

Feb          :                                                                 

Mar          :                                                                  

Apr          :                                                                 

May          :                                                                 

Jun          :                                                                  

Jul          :                                                                 

             :                                                                 

             :                                                                  

Sep  2008    :   606,434    304,275      31,662       404,686       1,042,782  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Excludes stocks on farms.  Includes stocks owned by or held for account of 

    peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities.  Farmer stock on

    net weight basis.                                                          

2/  Includes shelled edible grades, shelled oil stock, and shelled seed         

    (untreated).                                                               

3/  Actual farmer stock, plus roasting stock, plus shelled peanuts X 1.33.     

 

       Table 2.  Farmer Stock Peanuts, by Type, on Hand at Month's End,     

                             Crop of 2009-2010 1/                           

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Month    :   Virginias   :               :               :     Total    

    Ending   :      and      :    Runners    :    Spanish    :      All     

             :   Valencias   :               :               :     Types    

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :                         1,000 Pounds                         

             :                                                              

Aug  2009    :    128,292         909,218             0          1,037,510  

Sep          :    111,628         747,418           108            859,154  

Oct          :                                                              

Nov          :                                                              

Dec          :                                                               

             :                                                              

Jan  2010    :                                                              

Feb          :                                                               

Mar          :                                                              

Apr          :                                                              

May          :                                                              

Jun          :                                                              

Jul          :                                                              

             :                                                              

             :                                                               

Sep  2008    :     49,064         557,370             0            606,434  

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Excludes stocks on farms.  Includes stocks owned by or held for account o

    peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities.  Farmer stock

    on net weight basis.                                                    

 

 Table 3.  Shelled Peanuts and Roasting Stock (In Shell) on Hand at Month's End,

                              Crop of 2009-2010 1/                             

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :        Shelled Edibles 2/         :         :        :          

    Month    :-----------------------------------: Shelled :        :          

    Ending   :Virginias:        :        :       :   Oil   : Total  : Roasting 

             :   and   :Runners :Spanish : Total :Stocks 3/:Shelled : Stock 4/ 

             :Valencias:        :        :       :         :        :          

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :                           1,000 Pounds                          

             :                                                                 

Aug  2009    : 116,717  398,115   23,539  538,371  24,563   562,934    53,413  

Sep          : 111,364  413,289   18,704  543,357  26,281   569,638    44,072  

Oct          :                                                                  

Nov          :                                                                 

Dec          :                                                                 

             :                                                                  

Jan  2010    :                                                                 

Feb          :                                                                 

Mar          :                                                                  

Apr          :                                                                 

May          :                                                                 

Jun          :                                                                  

Jul          :                                                                 

             :                                                                 

             :                                                                  

Sep  2008    :  58,003  187,677   28,753  274,433  29,842   304,275    31,662  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Excludes stocks on farms.  Includes stocks owned by or held for account of 

    peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities.  Farmer stock on

    net weight basis.                                                          

2/  Shelled edible grades include blanched and shelled roasted peanuts converted

    to a raw basis using conversion factors of 1.08 and 1.12, respectively.    

3/  Includes straight run oil stock peanuts.                                   

4/  Cleaned and unshelled.                                                     

 

October 27, 2009

Harvest in the southwest US is on the downhill slope as most fields are dug.  Harvesting has been delayed due to light, but consistent moisture and high humidity, but weather conditions are expected to improve significantly over the next 4 to 14 days allowing harvest to proceed.  Yields are variable.  Where there was adequate to ample moisture and good agronomic practices yields were above average to very good.  Where moisture was a limiting factor yields fell off substantially due to high heat and low rainfall in late May and early June. 

The southeast crop has been slowed in maturation due to reduction in heat units and excessive rainfall for the last 30 days.   This will make an impact on quality and therefore yield.  Further, recent rainfall has aggravated disease because inability to spray pesticides within the 14 day harvest window.  This window has been prolonged due to poor harvest conditions which has left the crop vulnerable to pathogens.  Differential shrinkage of kernels and weight (grade and tonnage) should be expected in the last half of the crop as well as possible Seg II damage from disease and water damage. 

As November fast approaches, as of today, only 41% of the crop is reported graded based on FSIS data.  Since this is a lagging indicator, it is likely that the percent complete would be more near 45% to 47% for the US (assuming a yield of 1.85 million tons is correct).  My assumption is that we are more complete than expected as this tonnage expectation will continue to shrink as we move forward into the late planted, poor yielding and grading peanuts.  I would like to coin a phrase:  "the disappearing tail effect".  I believe, based on my experience, that the immature peanut shrinkage will be higher than expected causing the 'tail of the crop' to just disappear as we approach the last 4% to 7% further putting this crop in the record books for small size.  This disappearing tail can be common in west Texas on cooler than normal years as, depending on the distribution of flowering and pod set, the last percentage of the crop is just sloughed and blows out the combine as pops and raisins as the growers try to increase grade by setting combine air more aggressively.  At the buying points, as you tally the yield on each field, you realize they just are there as you move into the last 25% to 35% of the crop that is harvested.

Several things in the tonnage report are worth noting:  1) spanish are short, 2) valencia are short, 3) virginia are likely short, and runner tons are very slow to come in and be reported.  See the current report after the last comments.

The purchasing side of the industry sits and waits to buy kernels as the price slowly rises when they should be actively contracting every ton they need to make sure all internal needs are met.  Once again, they will be caught betting that it will be bigger than it is as China, India, and Argentine crops reports indicate a looming world shortage, not just for peanuts, but high protein crops in general.   This outside demand of importation of soybeans, a weakening US dollar, and hedging on commodities in the stock market will likely stoke a price run not seen since 2006/2007 or 2002/2003 crops. 

Some simple math on the chart below (if USDA percent complete is anywhere close to correct) shows this crop will come up short.

USDA Crop Production Report Acreages inserted.        
USDA Crop Production Report Acreages Inserted.        
USDA Current Crop Progress Report Information Inserted.      
NATIONAL PEANUT TONNAGE REPORT UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Date : 10/26/09 16:02  
Crop Year.: 2009 FEDERAL-STATE INSPECTION SERVICE      
ACCUMULATED TOTALS BY STATE P.O. Box 71767, Albany GA 31708-1767 Page : 1    
  Predicted Harvested Acreage Current Total Tons Total State Tons % Threshed by USDA October 25th USDA Predicted Tons
ALABAMA 153,000        
COM   3,165      
STR    39,319      
RCT    34,733 77,217 25.0% 252,450
FLORIDA 105,000        
COM     9,984      
STR    31,454      
RCT   31,139 80,577 60.0% 162,750
GEORGIA 500,000        
COM     10,947      
STR    194,290      
RCT    189,959 395,196 44.0% 875,000
MISSISSIPPI 20,000        
COM    0      
STR    0      
RCT    29 29 5.0% 35,000
NEW MEXICO 7,000        
COM 18821   0   *Most tonnage comes from Texas  
STR    18,821      
RCT    0 18,821 63.0% 11,200
N.CAROLINA 66,000        
COM    429      
STR    41,011      
RCT    18,204 59,645 68.0% 115,500
OKLAHOMA 12,000        
COM   0      
STR   795      
RCT   0 795 36.0% 20,400
S.CAROLINA 47,000        
COM    39      
STR    22,927      
RCT    8,372 31,399 76.0% 70,500
TEXAS 160,000        
COM    337     *3,185 tons of NM Valencia
STR    54,408      
RCT    36,189 90,933 44.0% 256,000
VIRGINIA 12,000        
COM    251      
STR    5,608      
RCT    3,033 8,892 76.0% 20,400
YTD Totals     763,504 USDA wieghted av % Cplte = 47 1,819,200
Peanut tonnage provided by individual buying point and not certified by F.S.I.S.    

 

 

October 14, 2009

Dollar weakens, will this spur export growth?   The Chinese, Argentine, and Indian peanut crop reports continue to be bleak.  Tonnage reports are worse than initial information indicated on production.  This will likely leave China as an importer of either beans or peanuts to supply their needs (depending on price), as well as leaving the export market short with no place, but the 2008 US crop carryover to cover the short production position.  The US crop continues to fight weather issues hampering maturity and harvest in the southeast and just harvest in the southwest.  The current FSIS report indicates about 21% of the crop has been harvested based on USDA crop expectations for 2009.   

October 9, 2009

USDA crop report for October indicates a 1% decline in predicted tonnage.  NOAA weather reports for the next 6 to 14 days indicate high probabilities of southeast temperatures being below normal with higher than normal rainfall probabilities. 

Peanuts:  Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and     

             United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted October 1, 2009           

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :           Area  Planted           :          Area Harvested          

  State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :   2007    :  2008 1/  :   2009    :   2007    :  2008 1/  :   2009   

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :                              1,000 Acres                             

        :                                                                       

AL      :    160.0       195.0       155.0       157.0       193.0       153.0 

FL      :    130.0       150.0       115.0       119.0       140.0       105.0 

GA      :    530.0       690.0       505.0       520.0       685.0       500.0 

MS      :     19.0        22.0        21.0        18.0        21.0        20.0 

NM      :     10.0         8.0         7.0        10.0         8.0         7.0 

NC      :     92.0        98.0        67.0        90.0        97.0        66.0 

OK      :     18.0        19.0        13.0        17.0        18.0        12.0 

SC      :     59.0        71.0        49.0        56.0        68.0        47.0 

TX      :    190.0       257.0       165.0       187.0       253.0       160.0 

VA      :     22.0        24.0        12.0        21.0        24.0        12.0 

        :                                                                      

US      :  1,230.0     1,534.0     1,109.0     1,195.0     1,507.0     1,082.0 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                               

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          :                Yield                 :          Production         

   State  :---------------------------------------------------------------------

          :        :         :       2009        :          :         :        

          :  2007  : 2008 1/ :-------------------:   2007   : 2008 1/ :  2009  

          :        :         :  Sep 1  :  Oct 1  :          :         :        

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          : -------------- Pounds -------------   -------- 1,000 Pounds --------

          :                                                                    

AL        : 2,550     3,500     3,300     3,300     400,350    675,500   504,900

FL        : 2,700     3,200     3,100     3,100     321,300    448,000   325,500

GA        : 3,120     3,400     3,500     3,500   1,622,400  2,329,000 1,750,000

MS        : 3,300     3,900     3,500     3,500      59,400     81,900    70,000

NM        : 3,200     3,200     3,200     3,200      32,000     25,600    22,400

NC        : 2,900     3,700     3,400     3,500     261,000    358,900   231,000

OK        : 3,400     3,500     3,200     3,400      57,800     63,000    40,800

SC        : 3,100     3,900     3,300     3,000     173,600    265,200   141,000

TX        : 3,700     3,300     3,400     3,200     691,900    834,900   512,000

VA        : 2,500     3,350     3,400     3,400      52,500     80,400    40,800

          :                                                                     

US        : 3,073     3,426     3,397     3,363   3,672,250  5,162,400 3,638,400

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/2008 Revised.                                                                

                                                                               

October 7, 2009

The west Texas production area received its first freeze of the year on October 2, 2009.  This freeze was isolated to the state line area of Yoakum county.  Areas away from the higher elevation along the state line were in the 35 to 37 degree range for the same date.  Some fields bronzed on the surface of the leaves where the freeze penetrated the canopy.  Harvesting continues on the remainder of the peanuts in the area with the bulk of the runner crop to be dug.

The southeast crop continues on a slow harvest pace with much of the peanuts being planted after the normal planting schedules pushing back digging.  Heat unit accumulations have slowed the crop and continued wet, cloudy weather has complicated the problem further.  Forecasts for the area indicate moderate chances of rain through early next week.  As of today less than 10% of the US peanut crop has been harvested and graded (source: FSIS grading reports) compared with the total crop graded last year.  The report can be viewed at:  http://www.gafsis.com/tonreport.asp which also has links to all other years of peanut crops.

The acreage in the V/C has been reduced as well as Spanish in the southwest.  These crops have, for the most part, been contracted in the last few weeks with prices on Spanish rising to $550.00 per ton.  Runner prices remain flat due to carryover from 2008 crop. 

Supplies in the world market have shortened considerable due to lower or poor production in India, Argentina, and China.  This will likely strengthen the runner market as carryover from 2008 is absorbed.  When the US harvest picture becomes clearer in volume and quality it is likely the market will begin to actually feel the shortage of the 2009 crop causing prices to rise.  The current USDA projection, based on predicted yields, will put the 2009 crop near the same carry over present at the end of the 2007 crop marketing year where runner prices reached as high as $700.00 per ton.

 

September 21, 2009

Spanish type peanuts are  being dug this week as the first major cold spell of the season approaches.  Temperatures on the high elevation areas along the state line may approach frost level, but with the early, warm soil temperatures a frost is very unlikely that would do any damage.  Virginia type peanuts will start being dug the end of this week.  Some early runners will also be dug the end of this week.  Yields so far are average to good on Valencia while no Spanish yields have been reported. 

Current acreage reported by USDA for Texas is 160,000.   This will not sustain all types for all needs of each sheller represented in the region.  V/C acreage has been greatly reduced and yields are not expected to be enough to remotely compensate for the differential.  Southeast acreage is down also.  Carry over supply will shrink quickly under these conditions.  All other major origins in the world are reporting moderate to dramatic acreage and/or production reductions (China, India, Argentina, and US).  This will shrink the world supply and put the peanut crop in a short market position.  Current kernel prices are on the rise.  No contract offers are reported at this time.

September 10, 2009

Harvest continues on Valencia type peanut.  First Spanish types are nearing and Virginia types are 14 to 18 days away.  Runner follow the Virginia type.   Pricing activity has increased following harvest beginning and reports from USDA indicating acreage changes or certifications from various states.  The best prices currently being offered are $560/ton on Virginia type.  Trail balloon have been floated on $480 to $500 for runner types, but no offers are currently on the table. 

The biggest impacts in the southwest are the split of acreage by type, number of shellers present, and lack of tonnage produced for total needed to supply shelling capacity.

 

USDA crop report indicated a rise in acreage overall.  Tonnage numbers still place the crop in a short fall position by mid next year.

 

      Peanuts:  Area Planted, Harvested, Yield and Production by State and     

            United States, 2007-2008 and Forecasted September 1, 2009          

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :           Area  Planted           :          Area Harvested          

  State :-----------------------------------------------------------------------

        :   2007    :   2008    :  2009 1/  :   2007    :   2008    :   2009    

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

        :                              1,000 Acres                             

        :                                                                      

AL      :    160.0       195.0       155.0       157.0       193.0       153.0 

FL      :    130.0       150.0       115.0       119.0       140.0       105.0 

GA      :    530.0       690.0       505.0       520.0       685.0       500.0 

MS      :     19.0        22.0        21.0        18.0        21.0        20.0 

NM      :     10.0         8.0         7.0        10.0         8.0         7.0 

NC      :     92.0        98.0        67.0        90.0        97.0        66.0 

OK      :     18.0        19.0        13.0        17.0        18.0        12.0 

SC      :     59.0        71.0        49.0        56.0        68.0        47.0 

TX      :    190.0       257.0       165.0       187.0       253.0       160.0 

VA      :     22.0        24.0        12.0        21.0        24.0        12.0 

        :                                                                      

US      :  1,230.0     1,534.0     1,109.0     1,195.0     1,507.0     1,082.0 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                                                               

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          :                Yield                 :          Production         

   State  :---------------------------------------------------------------------

          :        :         :       2009        :          :         :        

          :  2007  :  2008   :-------------------:   2007   :  2008   :  2009  

          :        :         :  Aug 1  :  Sep 1  :          :         :        

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          : -------------- Pounds -------------   -------- 1,000 Pounds --------

          :                                                                    

AL        : 2,550     3,300     3,300     3,300     400,350    636,900   504,900

FL        : 2,700     3,200     3,100     3,100     321,300    448,000   325,500

GA        : 3,120     3,400     3,300     3,500   1,622,400  2,329,000 1,750,000

MS        : 3,300     3,900     3,500     3,500      59,400     81,900    70,000

NM        : 3,200     3,200     3,200     3,200      32,000     25,600    22,400

NC        : 2,900     3,700     3,300     3,400     261,000    358,900   224,400

OK        : 3,400     3,500     3,200     3,200      57,800     63,000    38,400

SC        : 3,100     3,900     3,400     3,300     173,600    265,200   155,100

TX        : 3,700     3,400     3,400     3,400     691,900    860,200   544,000

VA        : 2,500     3,300     3,400     3,400      52,500     79,200    40,800

          :                                                                    

US        : 3,073     3,416     3,301     3,397   3,672,250  5,147,900 3,675,500

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Updated from "Acreage" released June 30, 2009.                             

 

September 4, 2009

West Texas began it's harvest the last few days of August 2009. The Valencia crop has appeared to be ahead of schedule most of the season, but like many experienced peanut individuals we know that doesn't always translate into reality.  This year it did and is going to follow suit with the Virginia and Spanish types.  Several Gregory variety fields are scraping (blasting for those who wish to use that term) in the mid 60% to near 70% range (black mesocarp).  With the high percentage of heat units accumulating now this will likely translate into a digging date late next week.  Spanish fields have shown maturity levels at 70% or slightly higher in some cases.  These fields will likely be ready to dig in the next 10 to 15 days.  Runner fields have begun showing just a few mature pods per plant.  With normal weather conditions in September the harvest of runner peanuts should begin the last week of September.

The first yields on Valencia fields (estimate only) are between 3,500 and 4,000 pounds per acre.  The harvest should go smoothly as the amount of equipment available related to the amount of peanuts is in favor of a smooth harvest.

The best prices being floated for fall high oleic runner type peanuts (no contract yet) is $500.00.  No discussion is present on uncontracted Virginia or Spanish type.  It is quite easy to determine that there is going to be a massive shortage of Spanish and significant shortage of high oleic runners.  The fact that so many Valencia are being grown in the West Texas region and  replacing other peanut acreage will have a significant impact on Spanish and modest impact on Virginia types.  The reduction in total acreage for runner type is the largest factor which will reduce available tonnage.  It is likely that the Texas acreage will shrink again slightly when the certified acreage report is released in the USDA crop report in another week.  This trend may also be present in the southeast and V/C.

August 14, 2009

The crop is progressing very well in all four types.  Rainfall has been scattered to general across the area due to the effect of El Nino.  In trying to be conservative, it is the best crop I have ever seen at this juncture in development in west Texas.   Of course, there is always opportunity for a spike in heat or a prolonged cold period before harvest which would reduce the current yield potential, but time is running out for the heat impact and NOAA is not forecasting for this event to occur. 

Peanut vines have flowered and pegged out the ends of the limbs and are now re-flowering at original fruiting sites that already have full size pods on them.  Early this week the Valencia peanuts were showing first set pods scraping dark brown to black.  There are still many pods to finish and then mature so I don't believe harvest could be that much earlier than a normal period, but this is very unusual in my experience.

Disease is very limited and has been controlled in most instances with one application of a soil borne or foliar fungicide.  Quality is likely to be good due to the development of the crop.

 

USDA crop reports:

 

Gr Lg 6  (8-09)

 

Peanut Stocks

and Processing

 

National Agricultural Statistics Service USDA Washington, D.C.

 

Released August 28, 2009, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.  For information on "Peanut Stocks and Processing" call Anthony Prillaman at (202) 720-7688, office hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.

 

Shelled Edible Grade Season to Date Utilization Up 2 Percent from Last Year Peanut Stocks in Commercial Storage Totaled 2.13 Billion Pounds

 

Peanut stocks reported in commercial storage on July 31, 2009 totaled

2.13 billion pounds of equivalent farmer stock, compared with 1.03 billion pounds a year ago.  This total includes 1.36 billion pounds of actual farmer stock.

 

Shelled peanuts on hand totaled 710 million pounds of farmer stock equivalent.  Roasting stock totaled 60.5 million pounds.

 

Shelled peanut stocks totaled 534 million pounds of which 511 million pounds were edible grades and 22.3 million pounds were oil stocks.  Edible grade stocks by type included 102 million pounds of Virginias and Valencias,

383 million pounds of Runners, and 26.0 million pounds of Spanish.

 

July millings totaled 296 million pounds.  Millings by type were 59.6 million pounds of Virginias and Valencias, 236 million pounds of Runners, and 800,000 pounds of Spanish.

 

Commercial processors utilized 173 million pounds of shelled edible grade peanuts during July.  Utilization by type was 106 million pounds for all peanut butter products, 36.1 million pounds for peanut candy, and

29.2 million pounds for snack peanuts.  Crushing for oil and cake and meal totaled 21.0 million pounds during the month.

 

Deliveries under the Government Domestic Feeding and Child Nutrition Programs amounted to 2.32 million pounds of peanut butter and 51,840 pounds of roasted peanuts during July.

 

Stocks of treated seed on hand July 31, 2009 totaled 592,000 pounds, compared with 806,000 pounds on June 30, 2009.  Of the July total, 452,000 pounds were Virginias and Valencias, 89,000 pounds were Runners, and 51,000 pounds were Spanish.  June stocks of treated seed included 570,000 pounds of Virginias and Valencias, 215,000 pounds of Runners, and 21,000 pounds of Spanish.

 

Stocks estimates refer to July 31, 2009.  All other data are for the month of July.

 

       Table 1.  Stocks of Peanuts and Specified Products at Month's End,      

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :           :           :            :   Farmer Stock Equivalent  

    Month    :  Farmer   :  Shelled  :  Roasting  :-----------------------------

    Ending   :   Stock   :  Peanuts  :   Stock    :   Shelled    :    Total    

             :           :    2/     : (In Shell) :   Peanuts    :      3/     

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :                           1,000 Pounds                          

             :                                                                 

Aug  2008    :   123,790    410,473      48,944       545,929         718,663  

Sep          :   606,434    304,275      31,662       404,686       1,042,782  

Oct          : 2,693,872    361,071      38,395       480,224       3,212,491  

Nov          : 3,692,870    420,589      49,318       559,383       4,301,571  

Dec          : 3,698,424    462,024      54,122       614,492       4,367,038  

             :                                                                 

Jan  2009    : 3,345,234    509,758      51,187       677,978       4,074,399  

Feb          : 3,019,374    550,458      67,118       732,109       3,818,601  

Mar          : 2,643,472    550,637      72,501       732,347       3,448,320  

Apr          : 2,316,578    522,250      74,210       694,593       3,085,381  

May          : 2,013,706    507,185      75,452       674,556       2,763,714  

Jun          : 1,652,732    546,230      68,273       726,486       2,447,491  

Jul          : 1,359,950    533,581      60,487       709,663       2,130,100  

             :                                                                  

             :                                                                 

Jul  2008    :   346,948    471,101      57,795       626,564       1,031,307  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1/  Excludes stocks on farms.  Includes stocks owned by or held for account of 

    peanut producers and CCC in commercial storage facilities.  Farmer stock on

    net weight basis.                                                          

2/  Includes shelled edible grades, shelled oil stock, and shelled seed        

    (untreated).                                                               

3/  Actual farmer stock, plus roasting stock, plus shelled peanuts X 1.33.     

 

       Table 2.  Farmer Stock Peanuts, by Type, on Hand at Month's End,     

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Month    :   Virginias   :               :               :     Total    

    Ending   :      and      :    Runners    :    Spanish    :      All     

             :   Valencias   :               :               :     Types    

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

             :                         1,000 Pounds                         

             :                                                              

Aug  2008    :     25,376           98,414             0           123,790  

Sep          :     49,064          557,370             0           606,434  

Oct          :    505,008        2,153,536        35,328         2,693,872  

Nov          :    646,738        2,973,364        72,768         3,692,870  

Dec          :    599,628        3,025,006        73,790         3,698,424  

             :                                                              

Jan  2009    :    537,222        2,741,658        66,354         3,345,234  

Feb          :    466,274        2,493,010        60,090         3,019,374  

Mar          :    405,384        2,190,784        47,304         2,643,472  

Apr          :    337,690        1,950,416        28,472         2,316,578  

May          :    280,652        1,709,938        23,116    &n