CropDocSM Market Information
Source: USDA
Oil Crops Outlook
Mark Ash
mash@ers.usda.gov
Kelsey Wittenberger
kwittenberger@ers.usda.gov
Smaller Soybean Crop, Strong Export Sales Fuel
Price Rally
OCS-10k
Nov 10, 2010
Contents
Domestic Outlook
Intl. Outlook
Contacts & Links
Tables
Soybean S&D
Soybean Meal
Soybean Oil
Cottonseed
Cottonseed Meal
Cottonseed Oil
Peanuts
Oilseed Prices
Veg. Oil Prices
Oilseed Meal
Prices
Web Sites
WASDE
Oilseed Circular
Soybeans & Oil Crops
Briefing Room
-------------
The next release is
Dec 13, 2010
--------------
Approved by the
World Agricultural
Outlook Board.
Domestic Outlook
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Yield Reductions for the Plains States Trim U.S. Soybean Crop
USDA lowered its 2010 yield forecast for soybeans to 43.9 bushels per acre from
44.4 bushels last month. Most of the yield reductions this month were for States in
the Central and Northern Plains (specifically Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and
North Dakota). With the estimate of U.S. harvested area unchanged at 76.8 million
acres, the yield reduction cut the 2010 forecast of the soybean crop by 33 million
bushels to 3.375 billion. Although still expected to exceed last year’s record crop
by 16 million bushels, the 2010 yield would slip just below last year’s record yield
of 44.0 bushels per acre. In October, favorably warm and dry conditions throughout
the Midwest accelerated this year’s soybean harvest for one of the earliest
completion dates ever.
Robust Import Demand Brightens Outlook for U.S. Soybean Exports
U.S. export sales commitments of soybeans as of October 28 were 203 million
bushels ahead of last year’s pace. More than 60 percent of this increase is due to
sales to China, although several other countries have also stepped up purchases of
U.S. soybeans. Also, delays in planting Brazil’s early soybean crop appear likely to
extend the U.S. shipping season by several weeks. In October, U.S. export
shipments tallied the second-highest monthly volume ever (281 million bushels),
trailing only the record high 299 million bushels in November 2009. Considering
these circumstances, the export forecast for 2010/11 was raised 50 million bushels
this month to 1.57 billion bushels, which would top last year’s record of 1.501
billion. The robust exports would limit 2010/11 soybean ending stocks to 185
million bushels—still above last year’s 151 million but down sharply from last
month’s forecast of 265 million.
Despite this year’s record crop, soybean prices may be approaching an all-time high
due to strong foreign demand. Cash soybean prices for central Illinois averaged
$11.30 per bushel in October—the highest ever recorded for the month. By
comparison, the U.S. average farm price in October was held down to $10.70 per
bushel due to forward sales made earlier this year at lower prices. Yet, only a
modest percentage of the crop has been priced so far. The cash basis of new sales
should strengthen quickly and buoy the season-average farm price. USDA raised
its forecast of the 2010/11 average farm price to $10.70-$12.20 per bushel from
$10.00-$11.50 last month. By next spring, even higher prices may be necessary to
ration the extraordinary demand for exports.
Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal Prices Surge Higher
For soybean oil, a firm pace for 2010/11 export sales led to a 200-million-pound
increase in this month’s export forecast to 2.7 billion pounds. Export demand is off
to a brisk start due to an exceptional windfall of trade with China. Also adding to
the firmness of U.S. sales is a slowing of exports from Brazil.
Despite the seasonal strength in foreign demand, the domestic use of soybean oil in
edible products continues to be gradually supplanted by imports of other vegetable
oils. Excluding use for methyl esters (biodiesel), the consumption of soybean oil
declined 0.8 percent in 2009/10 and 17 percent in the last 5 years. Only minimal
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
improvement is anticipated this year. Overall domestic use in 2010/11 was forecast
down 300 million pounds this month to 17.1 billion pounds. Coupled with a higher
level of beginning stocks, carryout supplies of soybean oil are also expected to stay
elevated. A slump in demand for September kept the 2009/10 ending stocks up at a
record high 3.358 billion pounds and sharply higher than the previous forecast of
3.176 billion. Lower soybean oil production in 2010/11 may trim the season-ending
stocks to 2.653 billion pounds, but that forecast is 282 million pounds higher than
a month ago.
Although the outlook for season-ending stocks of soybean oil was raised this
month, prices are rallying because of the sharply lower outlook for soybean
supplies. In effect, the 80-million-bushel reduction in soybean stocks this month
potentially subtracts from the U.S. market more than 900 million pounds of soybean
oil. Central Illinois prices for soybean oil swelled in October to a monthly average
of 44 cents per pound from 39.2 cents in September. This is the highest level since
September 2008. At this time it is not apparent what market factors could seriously
undermine the price level, leading USDA to raise its forecast of the 2010/11
average price by 3 cents to 42.5-46.5 cents per pound.
Similarly, soybean meal prices surged in early November toward $360 per short
ton, compared to the October average of $322. Again, the prices for soybean meal
have increased not so much because of stellar demand but due to the sharply lower
potential supply of soybeans. Higher costs throughout the livestock feed sector
(particularly for corn) are also providing substantial support. The USDA forecast of
the 2010/11 average price of soybean meal was raised $20 this month to $310-$350
per short ton.
International Outlook
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
0
5
10
15
20
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11F
Million metric tons
Source: PSD Online, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA.
Figure 2
Vegetable oil consumption in India expected to continue rapid growth
Other oils
Soybean oil
Palm oil
Soybean Area Edging Out Corn This Year in Brazil
Brazil’s soybean area for 2010/11 is estimated up to a record 24.25 million hectares
from 24.1 million last month and 23.5 million last year. More attractive soybean
prices are leading farmers to increase sowing of the crop. Depending on the
location, soybean prices in Brazil have strengthened 25-40 percent over the past 5
months. A 2-percent decline in the summer corn area accommodates some of the
soybean expansion, with most of the crop substitution occurring in the South. The
lack of rainfall there in September and October also may have encouraged a larger
shift into soybeans, which usually can be planted later than corn. As of early
November, farmers had sown about 42 percent of Brazil’s likely soybean area. The
area increase raised the 2010/11 forecast of Brazil’s soybean production to 67.5
million metric tons from 67 million last month.
A larger crop should support soybean crushing in Brazil, which was forecast up
400,000 tons this month to 33.5 million. The 2010/11 crush is now forecast only
slightly below last year’s total crush of 33.7 million tons. The additional production
of soybean meal and soybean oil would shore up Brazil’s export share for those
products. Even with formidable competition from Argentina, soybean meal exports
from Brazil could stabilize around 12.8 million tons in 2010/11, compared to 13
million last year. About 65-75 percent of Brazil’s soybean meal exports are shipped
to the EU-27. Similarly, higher output of soybean oil would limit the decline in
exports from Brazil to 1.35 million tons versus 1.45 million in 2009/10. Both China
and India are major importers of Brazilian soybean oil.
Soybeans Stay Attractive for Argentine Farmers
In Argentina, more land has been freed up for crop production since its severe 2008
drought. The disastrous conditions forced a contraction of the Argentine cattle herd
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
to its smallest level since 2002. Consequently, pastureland use is now lower, with
much of it converted to growing grain and oilseed crops. Despite this year’s
increase in Argentine wheat area, it is still well below its 5-year average. Strong
prices for soybeans are expected to keep the 2010/11 soybean area at 18.6 million
hectares—up 600,000 from the previous forecast and the same as last year.
The increase in the area estimate boosts the forecast of Argentine soybean
production by 2 million tons this month to 52 million. Favorable September-
October rainfall in the country supports the production outlooks for all the field
crops. However, Argentine farmers are worried about the chances for drier weather
early next year, so they have accelerated the sowing pace to get the best possible
crop establishment before then. Just over one-fourth of the soybean crop was sown
by early November, about double last year’s pace.
A bigger crop would help preserve the usual share for Argentine soybean exports in
China’s expanding import market. With more than two-thirds of the total exports
likely bound for China, Argentine trade in 2010/11 is forecast 1 million tons higher
this month to 13 million. On the other hand, strong export competition with the
United States and Brazil may not allow Argentine soybean stocks to excessively
tighten by next October.
In contrast, the sunflowerseed area sown in Argentina in 2010/11 may be less than
previously forecast. Despite an improvement in the expected returns for
sunflowerseed over the past several months, the profitability of soybeans and corn
looks even better. Argentine sunflowerseed area for 2010/11 is expected at 1.65
million hectares—down from last month’s forecast of 2 million but still above last
year’s area of 1.5 million. A reduction in the area lowers the sunflowerseed
production forecast by 600,000 tons to 2.8 million. Domestic processors are the
largest users, so the domestic crush is forecast down 500,000 tons to 3 million. And
since most of Argentina’s supply of sunflowerseed oil is exported, the reduced
production could scale back foreign trade in 2010/11 to 975,000 tons.
Strong Imports Seen for China To Calm Fast-Rising Food Costs
Sharp price increases for a number of basic food items, including vegetable oils,
have become a mounting concern in China. In September, the annualized rate of
increase was 8 percent. Some measures were taken to address that issue in October,
when China settled a 6-month trade interruption with Argentina over soybean oil.
Until those deliveries resume, China has also started to auction off state reserves of
soybean oil and rapeseed oil. However, it is unknown whether China can sell
enough stocks now to materially affect the price level. This may mean that China
will continue to have a large presence in the international market for vegetable oils.
Although China’s soybean oil imports dropped 39 percent in 2009/10 to 1.5 million
tons, they are expected to recover to 2 million tons in 2010/11. Imports of palm oil
may also edge higher, but a robust competition for imports from India may temper
the increase to 6.25 million tons from 5.8 million in 2009/10.
Despite an expected 800,000-ton increase in China’s 2010/11 vegetable oil imports
to 9.8 million, total consumption is seen rising by 2.5 million tons to 29.3 million.
By far the biggest increase in vegetable oil supplies will come from domestic
processors, who will rely on a large expansion of oilseed imports to meet the
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
demand. The primary source will be soybeans, whose imports are forecast up to 57
million tons for 2010/11. This is 2 million tons higher than last month’s forecast
and well above the 2009/10 total of 50.3 million.
Season-ending soybean stocks are seen rising again in 2010/11 to 16.6 million tons
from 14.5 million in 2009/10. Rapid growth in crushing capacity for processors in
southern China has dramatically increased import demand. As a consequence, that
has made it difficult for the processors in the northeast to limit the accumulation of
domestic soybean stocks.
Tighter Global Supplies of Sunflowerseed and Rapeseed Pressure the
EU-27 Vegetable Oil Market
Global production of sunflowerseed is forecast 1 million tons lower this month to
30.1 million. For the past few years, global stocks of sunflowerseed—held
primarily by Argentina—have been above average. This cushion was eroded in
2009/10 and may all but disappear in 2010/11, resulting in the lowest global stocksto-
use ratio since 1997/98. Consequently, the decline in these sunflowerseed
supplies is forecast to primarily reduce global crush and the production of
sunflowerseed oil and meal.
Global sunflowerseed oil production in 2010/11 is expected to be 11.1 million tons,
down 380,000 from last month and 4.4 percent lower than in 2009/10. Lower
output is forecast to curtail global trade—particularly for the top import market in
the EU-27. Sunflowerseed oil exports from Russia are anticipated to fall to a 6-year
low of 250,000 tons. These reductions are forecast to curb EU-27 imports of
sunflowerseed oil and decrease domestic consumption to 3.1 million metric tons—
down 220,000 from last month. This reduction was offset by a forecast increase for
imports of palm and rapeseed oils and the production of soybean oil. Even then,
EU-27 ending stocks of total vegetable oils may sink toward a 20-year low.
Global production of sunflowerseed meal in 2010/11 is forecast at 12 million tons
this month, down 400,000 from last month. Despite reduced supplies of
sunflowerseed meal in Russia, Russia’s rapidly growing animal sector is expected
to increase demand for protein meals and reduce available sunflower meal supplies
for export. Lower EU-27 imports of sunflower meal were offset by increased
imports of soybean meal.
The tighter supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed in Europe and throughout the
world are likely to boost the demand for soybeans and soybean meal there. EU
imports of soybeans are forecast 500,000 tons higher this month to 13.5 million, a
modest increase from the 2009/10 total of 12.9 million. Plentiful world supplies of
soybean meal are forecast to encourage an increase in EU imports to 23.25 million
tons from 21.75 million in 2009/10.
India’s High Demand for Vegetable Oil Expected To Draw
in Large Imports
Indian imports of vegetable oil may slow this fall due to a modest recovery in this
year’s domestic oilseed crops. But in subsequent months, India’s vegetable oil
imports should start to rise rapidly along with strong consumption. The country’s
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
total vegetable oil consumption in 2010/11 is anticipated to grow 5.3 percent to 16.9
million tons.
For soybean oil, India’s import demand will be restrained by larger domestic output.
The Indian soybean crop was estimated 400,000 tons higher this month to 9.6
million. Soybean oil imports in 2010/11 are seen at 1.3 million tons, compared to
1.6 million last year. Following a disruption in China’s soybean oil trade, cheaper
prices helped accelerate India’s soybean oil imports in the latter half of 2009/10.
The primary increase in vegetable oil supplies for 2010/11 will come through higher
imports of palm oil, which are seen increasing to 7.6 million tons from 6.6 million
last year. India has not restored import tariffs on any of the major vegetable oils.
.
Contacts and Links
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Data
Monthly tables from Oil Crops Outlook are available in Excel (.xls) spreadsheets at
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/soybeansoilcrops/Data/data.htm
. These tables contain thelatest data on the production, use, imports, exports, prices, and textile trade of cotton and
other fibers.
Recent Reports
Economic Analysis of Base Acre and Payment Yield Designations Under the 2002 U.S.
Farm Act
evaluates farmers' decisions to designate base acres under the 2002 Farm Act.Findings suggest that decisionmakers responded to economic incentives in their
designations of base acres by selecting those options that resulted in the greatest expected
flow of program payments,
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ERR12/. See also FarmProgram Acres
for the county-level farm program and planted acreage data used in thereport, which can be downloaded and mapped
. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/baseacres/Related Websites
Oil Crops Outlook,
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1288
WASDE,
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194
Oilseed Circular,
http://www.fas.usda.gov/oilseeds_arc.aspSoybeans and Oil Crops Briefing Room,
http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/soybeansoilcrops/
Contact Information
Mark Ash (soybeans, vegetable oils), (202) 694-5289,
mash@ers.usda.govKelsey Wittenberger, (peanuts and other oilseeds), (202) 694-5322
,kwittenberger@ers.usda.gov
Verna Daniels (web publishing), (202) 694-5301,
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance
Yield Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Planted Harvested Beginning Seed, feed, Ending
Sept. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports & residual Total stocks
Bu/acre ---------------------------------------------------M illion bushels------------------------------------------------------
2008/09 75.7 74.7 39.7 205 2,967 13 3,185 1,662 1,279 106 3,047 138
2009/10 77.5 76.4 44.0 138 3,359 15 3,512 1,752 1,501 108 3,361 151
2010/112 77.7 76.8 43.9 151 3,375 10 3,536 1,665 1,570 116 3,351 185
2009/10
September 0.3 113.3 39.1
O ctober 1.1 163.1 198.0
N ovember 1.7 168.7 298.8
Sep-Nov 1 38.2 3,359.0 3.2 3,500.4 445.1 536.0 1 80.8 1,161.8 2,338.6
December 1.7 173.1 225.9
January 1.7 167.2 226.4
February 2.3 153.9 171.5
Dec-Feb 2,338.6 --- 5.7 2,344.3 494.2 623.9 (43.9) 1,074.2 1,270.1
March 1.8 156.1 131.5
April 0.7 136.5 54.0
May 0.7 133.0 32.0
Mar-May 1,270.1 --- 3.2 1,273.3 425.6 217.5 59.0 702.1 571.1
June 1 .0 129.2 2 8.2
July 0 .9 129.4 3 7.2
August 0 .7 128.1 5 8.3
Jun-Aug 571.1 --- 2 .6 573.7 386.6 1 23.7 (87.7) 422.6 151.1
Total 3,359.0 1 4.7 3,511.9 1,751.5 1 ,501.1 1 08.2 3,360.8
2010/11
September1 1 51.1 3,408.2 0 .5 3,559.9 130.4 7 2.8
1 Estimated. 2 Forecast. NA=Not available.
Sources: Crop P roduction and Grain Stock s, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
and Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
Million acres
Area
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Ending
Oct. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total stocks
1,000 short tons
2008/09 294 39,102 88 39,484 30,752 8,497 39,249 235
2009/10
1 235 41,702 160 42,097 30,621 11,174 41,794 3032010/11
2 303 39,532 165 40,000 30,600 9,100 39,700 3002008/09
O ctober 293.8 3,519.4 9.1 3,822.4 2,780.1 670.2 3,450.3 372.0
N ovember 372.0 3,413.5 8.0 3,793.5 2,401.1 792.3 3,193.4 600.1
December 600.1 3,346.0 9.9 3,956.0 2,922.8 619.2 3,542.1 413.9
January 413.9 3,439.2 6.6 3,859.7 2,537.6 876.9 3,414.5 445.2
February 445.2 3,203.1 5.9 3,654.3 2,497.9 719.4 3,217.2 437.0
M arch 437.0 3,424.8 9.7 3,871.6 2,710.4 800.5 3,510.8 360.7
April 360.7 3,335.9 7.5 3,704.1 2,422.4 859.6 3,281.9 422.2
M ay 422.2 3,500.4 7.2 3,929.8 2,607.4 745.4 3,352.8 577.0
June 577.0 3,323.2 5.6 3,905.9 2,514.5 965.0 3,479.5 426.3
July 426.3 3,066.7 7.4 3,500.4 2,539.1 632.9 3,172.0 328.4
August 328.4 2,846.7 6.1 3,181.2 2,454.2 410.1 2,864.3 316.9
September 316.9 2,683.5 4.7 3,005.1 2,364.8 405.6 2,770.4 234.7
Total 39,102.4 87.7 39,484.0 30,752.2 8,497.1 39,249.3
2009/10
O ctober 234.7 3,845.7 12.3 4,092.6 2,890.9 756.7 3,647.6 445.1
N ovember 445.1 3,976.5 6.2 4,427.8 2,407.2 1,393.2 3,800.4 627.4
December 627.4 4,076.1 9.5 4,712.9 2,861.6 1,282.5 4,144.1 568.8
January 568.8 3,932.5 18.2 4,519.5 2,390.7 1,498.3 3,889.0 630.5
February 630.5 3,635.5 22.1 4,288.1 2,252.4 1,333.3 3,585.7 702.4
M arch 702.4 3,680.0 15.9 4,398.3 2,654.2 1,382.4 4,036.6 361.7
April 361.7 3,214.0 7.2 3,582.9 2,444.3 842.4 3,286.7 296.2
M ay 296.2 3,144.5 11.0 3,451.6 2,392.6 591.4 2,984.0 467.7
June 467.7 3,049.2 3.4 3,520.4 2,622.0 557.3 3,179.3 341.1
July 341.1 3,056.1 9.0 3,406.2 2,495.3 485.9 2,981.2 425.0
August 425.0 3,030.6 21.7 3,477.3 2,629.0 575.9 3,204.8 272.5
September
1 272.5 3,061.6 23.5 3,357.6 2,580.6 474.1 3,054.6 303.0Total to date
1 41,702.3 160.0 42,097.0 30,620.5 11,173.5 41,794.11 Estimated. 2
Forecast.Source: Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
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Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total Ending
Oct. 1 stocks Total Methyl ester stocks
Million pounds
2008/09 2,485 18,745 90 21,319 16,265 2,069 2,193 18,459 2,861
2009/101 2,861 19,615 103 22,578 15,864 1,682 3,356 19,220 3,358
2010/112 3,358 18,980 115 22,453 17,102 2,900 2,700 19,802 2,651
2008/09
O ctober 2,484.6 1,715.9 4.9 4,205.4 1,678.8 295.3 138.1 1,816.9 2,388.5
N ovember 2,388.5 1,622.9 9.3 4,020.6 1,399.3 252.4 102.3 1,501.6 2,519.0
December 2,519.0 1,597.0 3.3 4,119.3 1,369.8 207.0 119.9 1,489.7 2,629.6
January 2,629.6 1,615.1 9.3 4,253.9 1,165.2 133.3 96.4 1,261.6 2,992.3
February 2,992.3 1,536.1 10.1 4,538.5 1,268.5 195.9 145.9 1,414.4 3,124.1
M arch 3,124.1 1,636.0 10.3 4,770.4 1,417.5 107.4 161.3 1,578.8 3,191.6
April 3,191.6 1,596.0 10.6 4,798.2 1,168.5 98.5 350.3 1,518.8 3,279.4
M ay 3,279.4 1,683.2 3.1 4,965.7 1,349.0 98.6 277.9 1,626.9 3,338.8
June 3,338.8 1,604.3 4.7 4,947.8 1,331.0 118.3 86.5 1,417.5 3,530.3
July 3,530.3 1,469.2 8.1 5,007.5 1,311.0 164.3 247.6 1,558.6 3,448.9
August 3,448.9 1,369.4 7.9 4,826.2 1,389.3 174.8 302.9 1,692.2 3,134.0
September 3,134.0 1,299.9 8.0 4,442.0 1,417.3 223.0 164.2 1,581.5 2,860.5
Total 18,745.0 89.6 21,319.1 16,265.2 2,068.8 2,193.4 18,458.6
2009/10
O ctober 2,860.5 1,825.2 7.1 4,692.8 1,551.3 246.8 332.1 1,883.4 2,809.4
N ovember 2,809.4 1,854.0 9.6 4,673.0 1,441.4 239.4 241.1 1,682.5 2,990.5
December 2,990.5 1,898.3 10.2 4,899.0 1,358.1 237.0 390.3 1,748.5 3,150.5
January 3,150.5 1,845.0 13.7 5,009.2 1,278.8 93.3 513.4 1,792.2 3,217.0
February 3,217.0 1,690.1 13.8 4,920.9 1,235.0 108.8 399.1 1,634.0 3,286.9
M arch 3,286.9 1,728.8 4.3 5,020.0 1,350.7 133.4 407.7 1,758.4 3,261.7
April 3,261.7 1,519.2 8.3 4,789.2 1,287.9 130.0 147.8 1,435.7 3,353.5
M ay 3,353.5 1,481.6 10.8 4,845.9 1,304.2 102.6 76.6 1,380.8 3,465.1
June 3,465.1 1,438.8 5.5 4,909.5 1,227.6 94.6 128.9 1,356.6 3,552.9
July 3,552.9 1,440.5 6.1 4,999.5 1,275.7 103.4 179.1 1,454.8 3,544.7
August 3,544.7 1,418.4 8.2 4,971.4 1,323.1 95.1 365.6 1,688.7 3,282.6
September1 3,282.6 1,475.3 4.8 4,762.8 1,230.0 97.6 174.5 1,404.5 3,358.3
Total to date1 19,615.2 102.6 22,578.2 15,863.7 1,682.0 3,356.2 19,220.0
1 Estimated. 2 Forecast. Sources: Oilseed C rushings and Fats and Oils: P roduction, C onsumption, and Stock s ,
Census Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
12
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 4--Cottonseed: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Ending
Aug. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports Other Total stocks
1,000 short tons
2008/09 643 4,300 0 4,943 2,240 190 1,999 4,429 514
2009/10
1 514 4,149 24 4,687 1,900 291 2,154 4,345 3422010/11
2 342 6,231 0 6,573 2,500 450 3,104 6,054 5191 Estimated. 2
Forecast.Sources: Crop P roduction, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture
and Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
13
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 5--Cottonseed meal: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Ending
Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks
1,000 short tons
2008/09 55 0 9 38 994 887 90 976 17
2009/10
1 17 0 8 82 900 746 79 826 742010/11
2 74 0 1 ,150 1,224 1,074 100 1,174 501 Estimated. 2
Forecast.Source: Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
14
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 6--Cottonseed oil: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Ending
Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks
M illion pounds
2008/09 147 0 6 69 815 502 192 694 121
2009/10
1 121 0 6 17 738 561 95 656 832010/11
2 83 0 8 00 883 673 125 798 851 Estimated. 2
Forecast.Sources:
Oilseed C rushings and Fats and Oils: P roduction, C onsum ption, and Stock s , C ensus Bureau,U.S. Department of Commerce.
15
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 7--Peanuts: U.S. supply and disappearance
Supply Disappearance
Year begin. Beginning Domestic Seed & Ending
Aug. 1 stocks Imports Production Total food Crush residual Exports Total stocks
Million pounds
2008/09 1,031 86 5 ,162 6,280 2,571 445 407 727 4,150 2,130
2009/101 2,130 72 3 ,688 5,890 2,675 435 360 592 4,062 1,829
2010/112 1,829 60 3 ,962 5,851 2,754 480 420 590 4,244 1,607
1 Estimated. 2 Forecast.
Sources: Crop P roduction and Peanut Stock s and P rocessing, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service,
U.S. Department of Agriculture and C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.
16
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 8--Oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers
Marketing Soybeans
2 Cottonseed3 Sunflowerseed2 Canola4 Peanuts3 Flaxseed4year
$/bu. $/ton $/cwt. $/cwt. Cents/lb. $/bu.
1999/00 4.63 89.00 7 .53 7.82 25.40 3.79
2000/01 4.54 105.00 6 .89 6.71 27.40 3.30
2001/02 4.38 90.50 9 .62 8.77 23.40 4.29
2002/03 5.53 101.00 1 2.10 10.60 18.20 5.77
2003/04 7.34 117.00 1 2.10 10.60 19.30 5.88
2004/05 5.74 107.00 1 3.70 10.70 18.90 8.07
2005/06 5.66 9 6.00 1 2.10 9.62 1 7.30 5 .94
2006/07 6.43 1 11.00 1 4.50 11.90 1 7.70 5 .80
2007/08 10.10 1 62.00 2 1.70 18.30 20.50 13.00
2008/09 9.97 2 23.00 2 1.80 18.70 23.00 12.70
2009/10 9.59 1 58.00 1 5.20 16.20 21.70 8.10
2010/11
1 10.70-12.20 160-200 18.55-21.05 17.35-19.85 21.75-24.25 10.35-12.852009/10
September 9.75 164.00 1 3.90 15.70 23.30 6.79
O ctober 9.43 157.00 1 6.20 15.30 23.70 6.78
N ovember 9.53 159.00 1 4.10 16.00 21.70 8.15
December 9.80 160.00 1 4.70 15.90 21.70 8.41
January 9.79 149.00 1 5.70 16.00 20.70 8.42
February 9.41 153.00 1 6.80 15.70 21.00 8.50
M arch 9.39 NA 1 5.80 16.50 20.60 8.82
April 9.47 NA 1 6.00 16.90 20.40 8.52
M ay 9.41 NA 1 4.90 17.00 20.50 8.31
June 9.45 NA 1 5.00 17.20 21.60 9.29
July 9.79 NA 1 5.40 17.50 21.50 10.70
August 10.10 NA 1 4.30 17.20 20.70 11.10
2010/11
September 9.98 154.00 1 7.30 17.40 20.00 10.80
O ctober
1 10.70 158.00 1 9.20 18.10 21.30 11.401 Preliminary. 2 September-August 3August-July 4
July-JuneNA = N ot available.
Source: Agricultural P rices, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service,
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
17
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 9--U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices
Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Canola Peanut Corn Lard 6 Edible
year oil 2 oil 3 oil 4 oil 4 oil 5 oil 6 tallow 6
Cents/lb.
1999/00 15.60 21.52 16.68 17.11 35.96 17.81 13.64 13.21
2000/01 14.15 15.98 15.88 17.56 34.97 13.54 14.61 13.43
2001/02 16.46 17.98 23.25 23.45 32.23 19.14 13.55 13.87
2002/03 22.04 37.75 33.13 29.75 46.70 28.17 18.13 17.80
2003/04 29.97 31.21 33.42 33.76 60.84 28.43 26.13 22.37
2004/05 23.01 28.01 43.71 30.78 53.63 27.86 21.80 18.48
2005/06 23.41 29.47 40.64 31.00 44.48 25.18 21.74 18.16
2006/07 31.02 35.70 58.03 40.57 52.99 31.80 28.43 27.32
2007/08 52.03 73.56 91.15 65.64 94.53 69.40 40.85 41.68
2008/09 32.16 37.10 50.24 39.54 78.49 32.75 26.72 25.47
2009/10 35.95 40.27 52.80 42.88 59.62 39.29 31.99 32.26
2010/111 42.5-46.5 47.0-51.0 59.5-63.5 49.5-53.5 69.5-73.5 46.0-50.0 37.5-41.5 36.5-40.5
2009/10
O ctober 33.15 37.90 52.20 41.55 51.20 37.59 25.75 27.63
N ovember 36.59 40.69 53.00 44.38 52.00 38.12 30.07 29.65
December 36.81 41.40 52.00 42.90 52.20 40.02 28.75 29.99
January 34.88 39.00 52.00 40.56 59.00 40.34 28.60 29.48
February 34.69 39.13 52.00 41.88 59.50 37.54 28.25 29.42
March 36.39 39.88 51.25 42.50 58.75 38.37 32.95 33.73
April 37.11 38.75 51.60 42.20 63.60 38.50 33.95 35.14
May 35.41 37.38 52.50 40.00 67.63 38.50 34.24 35.33
June 34.47 40.00 55.75 40.00 67.75 38.93 32.98 35.72
July 35.07 42.45 53.60 44.00 67.80 39.29 31.42 32.50
August 37.57 43.69 53.75 47.19 68.38 41.48 33.33 33.54
September 39.21 43.00 54.00 47.38 68.81 42.85 43.59 35.02
2010/11
October1 44.02 47.20 56.00 51.45 71.40 47.50 46.64 37.00
1 Preliminary. 2 Decatur, IL. 3 PBSY Greenwood, M S. 4 M idwest. 5 Southeast mills. 6 C hicago.
NA= N ot available.
Sources: Monthly Feedstuff Prices , Agricultural Marketing Service,
U.S. Department of Agriculture.
18
Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010
Economic Research Service, USDA
Table 10--U.S. oilseed meal prices
Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Peanut Canola Linseed
year meal 2 meal 3 meal 4 meal 5 meal 6 meal 7
$/Short ton
1999/00 167.62 127.43 75.00 108.15 117.07 103.42
2000/01 173.62 142.93 90.50 119.75 139.20 121.92
2001/02 167.72 136.16 87.27 112.32 143.33 121.29
2002/03 181.58 146.12 105.00 128.35 144.06 122.91
2003/04 256.05 183.47 111.14 177.56 188.45 159.25
2004/05 182.90 124.04 85.50 118.34 139.75 115.55
2005/06 1 74.17 144.27 7 7.46 106.98 1 40.52 1 15.53
2006/07 2 05.44 150.36 1 04.88 1 00.00 1 73.50 1 33.01
2007/08 3 35.94 253.81 1 72.81 NA 2 51.32 2 28.81
2008/09 3 31.17 255.23 1 52.46 NA 2 48.82 2 20.89
2009/10 3 11.27 220.90 1 51.04 NA 2 24.92 2 09.23
2010/111 310-350 215-255 175-215 NA 240-280 235-275
2008/09
O ctober 260.66 238.75 161.13 NA 192.55 160.75
N ovember 267.37 225.00 146.88 NA 217.99 164.00
December 268.24 229.50 150.00 NA 228.62 189.60
January 306.85 237.50 164.38 NA 279.23 248.75
February 297.42 236.25 161.88 NA 243.30 270.00
M arch 292.22 213.00 134.38 NA 217.02 231.88
April 324.27 212.50 130.00 NA 230.06 233.50
M ay 380.37 236.25 141.25 NA 287.99 263.13
June 418.47 306.00 187.50 NA 325.48 250.00
July 373.18 305.00 170.63 NA 261.55 226.88
August 405.27 315.00 147.50 NA 277.30 217.00
September 379.68 308.00 134.00 NA 224.74 195.20
2009/10
O ctober 325.69 250.00 151.88 NA 220.90 185.00
N ovember 328.18 260.00 189.38 NA 177.69 220.00
December 333.93 283.75 197.50 NA NA 256.50
January 314.23 286.25 181.88 NA 248.63 228.75
February 295.79 253.75 165.63 NA 218.18 222.50
M arch 277.61 213.00 137.50 NA 214.11 201.50
April 291.21 175.00 132.50 NA 226.95 200.83
M ay 287.85 171.25 120.50 NA 222.28 202.75
June 305.78 176.00 109.50 NA 224.56 189.50
July 325.56 183.75 120.00 NA 245.18 199.38
August 331.76 198.00 141.20 NA 244.44 204.00
September 317.65 200.00 165.00 NA 231.20 200.00
2009/10
O ctober1 321.92 225.31 1 90.63 NA 251.03 208.75
1 Preliminary. 2 Hi-pro Decatur, IL. 3 41% M emphis. 4 34% N orth Dakota-Minnesota.
5 50% Southeast mills. 6 36% Pacific N orthwest. 7 34% M inneapolis. NA= N ot available.
Source: Monthly F eedstuff Prices, Agricultural M arketing Service,
U.S. Department of Agriculture.