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-------------

The next release is

Dec 13, 2010

--------------

Approved by the

World Agricultural

Outlook Board.

2

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

USDA lowered its 2010 yield forecast for soybeans to 43.9 bushels per acre from

44.4 bushels last month. Most of the yield reductions this month were for States in

the Central and Northern Plains (specifically Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and

North Dakota). With the estimate of U.S. harvested area unchanged at 76.8 million

acres, the yield reduction cut the 2010 forecast of the soybean crop by 33 million

bushels to 3.375 billion. Although still expected to exceed last year’s record crop

by 16 million bushels, the 2010 yield would slip just below last year’s record yield

of 44.0 bushels per acre. In October, favorably warm and dry conditions throughout

the Midwest accelerated this year’s soybean harvest for one of the earliest

completion dates ever.

U.S. export sales commitments of soybeans as of October 28 were 203 million

bushels ahead of last year’s pace. More than 60 percent of this increase is due to

sales to China, although several other countries have also stepped up purchases of

U.S. soybeans. Also, delays in planting Brazil’s early soybean crop appear likely to

extend the U.S. shipping season by several weeks. In October, U.S. export

shipments tallied the second-highest monthly volume ever (281 million bushels),

trailing only the record high 299 million bushels in November 2009. Considering

these circumstances, the export forecast for 2010/11 was raised 50 million bushels

this month to 1.57 billion bushels, which would top last year’s record of 1.501

billion. The robust exports would limit 2010/11 soybean ending stocks to 185

million bushels—still above last year’s 151 million but down sharply from last

month’s forecast of 265 million.

Despite this year’s record crop, soybean prices may be approaching an all-time high

due to strong foreign demand. Cash soybean prices for central Illinois averaged

$11.30 per bushel in October—the highest ever recorded for the month. By

comparison, the U.S. average farm price in October was held down to $10.70 per

bushel due to forward sales made earlier this year at lower prices. Yet, only a

modest percentage of the crop has been priced so far. The cash basis of new sales

should strengthen quickly and buoy the season-average farm price. USDA raised

its forecast of the 2010/11 average farm price to $10.70-$12.20 per bushel from

$10.00-$11.50 last month. By next spring, even higher prices may be necessary to

ration the extraordinary demand for exports.

For soybean oil, a firm pace for 2010/11 export sales led to a 200-million-pound

increase in this month’s export forecast to 2.7 billion pounds. Export demand is off

to a brisk start due to an exceptional windfall of trade with China. Also adding to

the firmness of U.S. sales is a slowing of exports from Brazil.

Despite the seasonal strength in foreign demand, the domestic use of soybean oil in

edible products continues to be gradually supplanted by imports of other vegetable

oils. Excluding use for methyl esters (biodiesel), the consumption of soybean oil

declined 0.8 percent in 2009/10 and 17 percent in the last 5 years. Only minimal

3

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

improvement is anticipated this year. Overall domestic use in 2010/11 was forecast

down 300 million pounds this month to 17.1 billion pounds. Coupled with a higher

level of beginning stocks, carryout supplies of soybean oil are also expected to stay

elevated. A slump in demand for September kept the 2009/10 ending stocks up at a

record high 3.358 billion pounds and sharply higher than the previous forecast of

3.176 billion. Lower soybean oil production in 2010/11 may trim the season-ending

stocks to 2.653 billion pounds, but that forecast is 282 million pounds higher than

a month ago.

Although the outlook for season-ending stocks of soybean oil was raised this

month, prices are rallying because of the sharply lower outlook for soybean

supplies. In effect, the 80-million-bushel reduction in soybean stocks this month

potentially subtracts from the U.S. market more than 900 million pounds of soybean

oil. Central Illinois prices for soybean oil swelled in October to a monthly average

of 44 cents per pound from 39.2 cents in September. This is the highest level since

September 2008. At this time it is not apparent what market factors could seriously

undermine the price level, leading USDA to raise its forecast of the 2010/11

average price by 3 cents to 42.5-46.5 cents per pound.

Similarly, soybean meal prices surged in early November toward $360 per short

ton, compared to the October average of $322. Again, the prices for soybean meal

have increased not so much because of stellar demand but due to the sharply lower

potential supply of soybeans. Higher costs throughout the livestock feed sector

(particularly for corn) are also providing substantial support. The USDA forecast of

the 2010/11 average price of soybean meal was raised $20 this month to $310-$350

per short ton.

4

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

0

5

10

15

20

2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11F

Million metric tons

Source: PSD Online, Foreign Agriculture Service, USDA.

Figure 2

Other oils

Soybean oil

Palm oil

Brazil’s soybean area for 2010/11 is estimated up to a record 24.25 million hectares

from 24.1 million last month and 23.5 million last year. More attractive soybean

prices are leading farmers to increase sowing of the crop. Depending on the

location, soybean prices in Brazil have strengthened 25-40 percent over the past 5

months. A 2-percent decline in the summer corn area accommodates some of the

soybean expansion, with most of the crop substitution occurring in the South. The

lack of rainfall there in September and October also may have encouraged a larger

shift into soybeans, which usually can be planted later than corn. As of early

November, farmers had sown about 42 percent of Brazil’s likely soybean area. The

area increase raised the 2010/11 forecast of Brazil’s soybean production to 67.5

million metric tons from 67 million last month.

A larger crop should support soybean crushing in Brazil, which was forecast up

400,000 tons this month to 33.5 million. The 2010/11 crush is now forecast only

slightly below last year’s total crush of 33.7 million tons. The additional production

of soybean meal and soybean oil would shore up Brazil’s export share for those

products. Even with formidable competition from Argentina, soybean meal exports

from Brazil could stabilize around 12.8 million tons in 2010/11, compared to 13

million last year. About 65-75 percent of Brazil’s soybean meal exports are shipped

to the EU-27. Similarly, higher output of soybean oil would limit the decline in

exports from Brazil to 1.35 million tons versus 1.45 million in 2009/10. Both China

and India are major importers of Brazilian soybean oil.

In Argentina, more land has been freed up for crop production since its severe 2008

drought. The disastrous conditions forced a contraction of the Argentine cattle herd

5

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

to its smallest level since 2002. Consequently, pastureland use is now lower, with

much of it converted to growing grain and oilseed crops. Despite this year’s

increase in Argentine wheat area, it is still well below its 5-year average. Strong

prices for soybeans are expected to keep the 2010/11 soybean area at 18.6 million

hectares—up 600,000 from the previous forecast and the same as last year.

The increase in the area estimate boosts the forecast of Argentine soybean

production by 2 million tons this month to 52 million. Favorable September-

October rainfall in the country supports the production outlooks for all the field

crops. However, Argentine farmers are worried about the chances for drier weather

early next year, so they have accelerated the sowing pace to get the best possible

crop establishment before then. Just over one-fourth of the soybean crop was sown

by early November, about double last year’s pace.

A bigger crop would help preserve the usual share for Argentine soybean exports in

China’s expanding import market. With more than two-thirds of the total exports

likely bound for China, Argentine trade in 2010/11 is forecast 1 million tons higher

this month to 13 million. On the other hand, strong export competition with the

United States and Brazil may not allow Argentine soybean stocks to excessively

tighten by next October.

In contrast, the sunflowerseed area sown in Argentina in 2010/11 may be less than

previously forecast. Despite an improvement in the expected returns for

sunflowerseed over the past several months, the profitability of soybeans and corn

looks even better. Argentine sunflowerseed area for 2010/11 is expected at 1.65

million hectares—down from last month’s forecast of 2 million but still above last

year’s area of 1.5 million. A reduction in the area lowers the sunflowerseed

production forecast by 600,000 tons to 2.8 million. Domestic processors are the

largest users, so the domestic crush is forecast down 500,000 tons to 3 million. And

since most of Argentina’s supply of sunflowerseed oil is exported, the reduced

production could scale back foreign trade in 2010/11 to 975,000 tons.

Sharp price increases for a number of basic food items, including vegetable oils,

have become a mounting concern in China. In September, the annualized rate of

increase was 8 percent. Some measures were taken to address that issue in October,

when China settled a 6-month trade interruption with Argentina over soybean oil.

Until those deliveries resume, China has also started to auction off state reserves of

soybean oil and rapeseed oil. However, it is unknown whether China can sell

enough stocks now to materially affect the price level. This may mean that China

will continue to have a large presence in the international market for vegetable oils.

Although China’s soybean oil imports dropped 39 percent in 2009/10 to 1.5 million

tons, they are expected to recover to 2 million tons in 2010/11. Imports of palm oil

may also edge higher, but a robust competition for imports from India may temper

the increase to 6.25 million tons from 5.8 million in 2009/10.

Despite an expected 800,000-ton increase in China’s 2010/11 vegetable oil imports

to 9.8 million, total consumption is seen rising by 2.5 million tons to 29.3 million.

By far the biggest increase in vegetable oil supplies will come from domestic

processors, who will rely on a large expansion of oilseed imports to meet the

6

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

demand. The primary source will be soybeans, whose imports are forecast up to 57

million tons for 2010/11. This is 2 million tons higher than last month’s forecast

and well above the 2009/10 total of 50.3 million.

Season-ending soybean stocks are seen rising again in 2010/11 to 16.6 million tons

from 14.5 million in 2009/10. Rapid growth in crushing capacity for processors in

southern China has dramatically increased import demand. As a consequence, that

has made it difficult for the processors in the northeast to limit the accumulation of

domestic soybean stocks.

Global production of sunflowerseed is forecast 1 million tons lower this month to

30.1 million. For the past few years, global stocks of sunflowerseed—held

primarily by Argentina—have been above average. This cushion was eroded in

2009/10 and may all but disappear in 2010/11, resulting in the lowest global stocksto-

use ratio since 1997/98. Consequently, the decline in these sunflowerseed

supplies is forecast to primarily reduce global crush and the production of

sunflowerseed oil and meal.

Global sunflowerseed oil production in 2010/11 is expected to be 11.1 million tons,

down 380,000 from last month and 4.4 percent lower than in 2009/10. Lower

output is forecast to curtail global trade—particularly for the top import market in

the EU-27. Sunflowerseed oil exports from Russia are anticipated to fall to a 6-year

low of 250,000 tons. These reductions are forecast to curb EU-27 imports of

sunflowerseed oil and decrease domestic consumption to 3.1 million metric tons—

down 220,000 from last month. This reduction was offset by a forecast increase for

imports of palm and rapeseed oils and the production of soybean oil. Even then,

EU-27 ending stocks of total vegetable oils may sink toward a 20-year low.

Global production of sunflowerseed meal in 2010/11 is forecast at 12 million tons

this month, down 400,000 from last month. Despite reduced supplies of

sunflowerseed meal in Russia, Russia’s rapidly growing animal sector is expected

to increase demand for protein meals and reduce available sunflower meal supplies

for export. Lower EU-27 imports of sunflower meal were offset by increased

imports of soybean meal.

The tighter supplies of sunflowerseed and rapeseed in Europe and throughout the

world are likely to boost the demand for soybeans and soybean meal there. EU

imports of soybeans are forecast 500,000 tons higher this month to 13.5 million, a

modest increase from the 2009/10 total of 12.9 million. Plentiful world supplies of

soybean meal are forecast to encourage an increase in EU imports to 23.25 million

tons from 21.75 million in 2009/10.

Indian imports of vegetable oil may slow this fall due to a modest recovery in this

year’s domestic oilseed crops. But in subsequent months, India’s vegetable oil

imports should start to rise rapidly along with strong consumption. The country’s

7

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

total vegetable oil consumption in 2010/11 is anticipated to grow 5.3 percent to 16.9

million tons.

For soybean oil, India’s import demand will be restrained by larger domestic output.

The Indian soybean crop was estimated 400,000 tons higher this month to 9.6

million. Soybean oil imports in 2010/11 are seen at 1.3 million tons, compared to

1.6 million last year. Following a disruption in China’s soybean oil trade, cheaper

prices helped accelerate India’s soybean oil imports in the latter half of 2009/10.

The primary increase in vegetable oil supplies for 2010/11 will come through higher

imports of palm oil, which are seen increasing to 7.6 million tons from 6.6 million

last year. India has not restored import tariffs on any of the major vegetable oils.

.

8

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov. 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Monthly tables from Oil Crops Outlook are available in Excel (.xls) spreadsheets at

latest data on the production, use, imports, exports, prices, and textile trade of cotton and

other fibers.

Findings suggest that decisionmakers responded to economic incentives in their

designations of base acres by selecting those options that resulted in the greatest expected

Oil Crops Outlook,

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1288

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http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

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http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/soybeansoilcrops/

kwittenberger@ers.usda.gov

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9

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 1--Soybeans: U.S. supply and disappearance

Yield Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Planted Harvested Beginning Seed, feed, Ending

Sept. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports & residual Total stocks

2008/09 75.7 74.7 39.7 205 2,967 13 3,185 1,662 1,279 106 3,047 138

2009/10 77.5 76.4 44.0 138 3,359 15 3,512 1,752 1,501 108 3,361 151

2010/112 77.7 76.8 43.9 151 3,375 10 3,536 1,665 1,570 116 3,351 185

2009/10

September 0.3 113.3 39.1

O ctober 1.1 163.1 198.0

N ovember 1.7 168.7 298.8

Sep-Nov 1 38.2 3,359.0 3.2 3,500.4 445.1 536.0 1 80.8 1,161.8 2,338.6

December 1.7 173.1 225.9

January 1.7 167.2 226.4

February 2.3 153.9 171.5

Dec-Feb 2,338.6 --- 5.7 2,344.3 494.2 623.9 (43.9) 1,074.2 1,270.1

March 1.8 156.1 131.5

April 0.7 136.5 54.0

May 0.7 133.0 32.0

Mar-May 1,270.1 --- 3.2 1,273.3 425.6 217.5 59.0 702.1 571.1

June 1 .0 129.2 2 8.2

July 0 .9 129.4 3 7.2

August 0 .7 128.1 5 8.3

Jun-Aug 571.1 --- 2 .6 573.7 386.6 1 23.7 (87.7) 422.6 151.1

Total 3,359.0 1 4.7 3,511.9 1,751.5 1 ,501.1 1 08.2 3,360.8

2010/11

September1 1 51.1 3,408.2 0 .5 3,559.9 130.4 7 2.8

1 Estimated. 2 Forecast. NA=Not available.

Sources: Crop P roduction and Grain Stock s, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

and Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

Area

10

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 2--Soybean meal: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Ending

Oct. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total stocks

2008/09 294 39,102 88 39,484 30,752 8,497 39,249 235

2008/09

O ctober 293.8 3,519.4 9.1 3,822.4 2,780.1 670.2 3,450.3 372.0

N ovember 372.0 3,413.5 8.0 3,793.5 2,401.1 792.3 3,193.4 600.1

December 600.1 3,346.0 9.9 3,956.0 2,922.8 619.2 3,542.1 413.9

January 413.9 3,439.2 6.6 3,859.7 2,537.6 876.9 3,414.5 445.2

February 445.2 3,203.1 5.9 3,654.3 2,497.9 719.4 3,217.2 437.0

M arch 437.0 3,424.8 9.7 3,871.6 2,710.4 800.5 3,510.8 360.7

April 360.7 3,335.9 7.5 3,704.1 2,422.4 859.6 3,281.9 422.2

M ay 422.2 3,500.4 7.2 3,929.8 2,607.4 745.4 3,352.8 577.0

June 577.0 3,323.2 5.6 3,905.9 2,514.5 965.0 3,479.5 426.3

July 426.3 3,066.7 7.4 3,500.4 2,539.1 632.9 3,172.0 328.4

August 328.4 2,846.7 6.1 3,181.2 2,454.2 410.1 2,864.3 316.9

September 316.9 2,683.5 4.7 3,005.1 2,364.8 405.6 2,770.4 234.7

Total 39,102.4 87.7 39,484.0 30,752.2 8,497.1 39,249.3

2009/10

O ctober 234.7 3,845.7 12.3 4,092.6 2,890.9 756.7 3,647.6 445.1

N ovember 445.1 3,976.5 6.2 4,427.8 2,407.2 1,393.2 3,800.4 627.4

December 627.4 4,076.1 9.5 4,712.9 2,861.6 1,282.5 4,144.1 568.8

January 568.8 3,932.5 18.2 4,519.5 2,390.7 1,498.3 3,889.0 630.5

February 630.5 3,635.5 22.1 4,288.1 2,252.4 1,333.3 3,585.7 702.4

M arch 702.4 3,680.0 15.9 4,398.3 2,654.2 1,382.4 4,036.6 361.7

April 361.7 3,214.0 7.2 3,582.9 2,444.3 842.4 3,286.7 296.2

M ay 296.2 3,144.5 11.0 3,451.6 2,392.6 591.4 2,984.0 467.7

June 467.7 3,049.2 3.4 3,520.4 2,622.0 557.3 3,179.3 341.1

July 341.1 3,056.1 9.0 3,406.2 2,495.3 485.9 2,981.2 425.0

August 425.0 3,030.6 21.7 3,477.3 2,629.0 575.9 3,204.8 272.5

Source: Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

11

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 3--Soybean oil: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Production Imports Total Domestic Exports Total Ending

Oct. 1 stocks Total Methyl ester stocks

2008/09 2,485 18,745 90 21,319 16,265 2,069 2,193 18,459 2,861

2009/101 2,861 19,615 103 22,578 15,864 1,682 3,356 19,220 3,358

2010/112 3,358 18,980 115 22,453 17,102 2,900 2,700 19,802 2,651

2008/09

O ctober 2,484.6 1,715.9 4.9 4,205.4 1,678.8 295.3 138.1 1,816.9 2,388.5

N ovember 2,388.5 1,622.9 9.3 4,020.6 1,399.3 252.4 102.3 1,501.6 2,519.0

December 2,519.0 1,597.0 3.3 4,119.3 1,369.8 207.0 119.9 1,489.7 2,629.6

January 2,629.6 1,615.1 9.3 4,253.9 1,165.2 133.3 96.4 1,261.6 2,992.3

February 2,992.3 1,536.1 10.1 4,538.5 1,268.5 195.9 145.9 1,414.4 3,124.1

M arch 3,124.1 1,636.0 10.3 4,770.4 1,417.5 107.4 161.3 1,578.8 3,191.6

April 3,191.6 1,596.0 10.6 4,798.2 1,168.5 98.5 350.3 1,518.8 3,279.4

M ay 3,279.4 1,683.2 3.1 4,965.7 1,349.0 98.6 277.9 1,626.9 3,338.8

June 3,338.8 1,604.3 4.7 4,947.8 1,331.0 118.3 86.5 1,417.5 3,530.3

July 3,530.3 1,469.2 8.1 5,007.5 1,311.0 164.3 247.6 1,558.6 3,448.9

August 3,448.9 1,369.4 7.9 4,826.2 1,389.3 174.8 302.9 1,692.2 3,134.0

September 3,134.0 1,299.9 8.0 4,442.0 1,417.3 223.0 164.2 1,581.5 2,860.5

Total 18,745.0 89.6 21,319.1 16,265.2 2,068.8 2,193.4 18,458.6

2009/10

O ctober 2,860.5 1,825.2 7.1 4,692.8 1,551.3 246.8 332.1 1,883.4 2,809.4

N ovember 2,809.4 1,854.0 9.6 4,673.0 1,441.4 239.4 241.1 1,682.5 2,990.5

December 2,990.5 1,898.3 10.2 4,899.0 1,358.1 237.0 390.3 1,748.5 3,150.5

January 3,150.5 1,845.0 13.7 5,009.2 1,278.8 93.3 513.4 1,792.2 3,217.0

February 3,217.0 1,690.1 13.8 4,920.9 1,235.0 108.8 399.1 1,634.0 3,286.9

M arch 3,286.9 1,728.8 4.3 5,020.0 1,350.7 133.4 407.7 1,758.4 3,261.7

April 3,261.7 1,519.2 8.3 4,789.2 1,287.9 130.0 147.8 1,435.7 3,353.5

M ay 3,353.5 1,481.6 10.8 4,845.9 1,304.2 102.6 76.6 1,380.8 3,465.1

June 3,465.1 1,438.8 5.5 4,909.5 1,227.6 94.6 128.9 1,356.6 3,552.9

July 3,552.9 1,440.5 6.1 4,999.5 1,275.7 103.4 179.1 1,454.8 3,544.7

August 3,544.7 1,418.4 8.2 4,971.4 1,323.1 95.1 365.6 1,688.7 3,282.6

September1 3,282.6 1,475.3 4.8 4,762.8 1,230.0 97.6 174.5 1,404.5 3,358.3

Total to date1 19,615.2 102.6 22,578.2 15,863.7 1,682.0 3,356.2 19,220.0

1 Estimated. 2 Forecast. Sources: Oilseed C rushings and Fats and Oils: P roduction, C onsumption, and Stock s ,

Census Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

12

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 4--Cottonseed: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Ending

Aug. 1 stocks Production Imports Total Crush Exports Other Total stocks

2008/09 643 4,300 0 4,943 2,240 190 1,999 4,429 514

Sources: Crop P roduction, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

and Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

13

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 5--Cottonseed meal: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Ending

Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks

2008/09 55 0 9 38 994 887 90 976 17

Source: Oilseed C rushings, C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

14

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 6--Cottonseed oil: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Ending

Oct. 1 stocks Imports Production Total Domestic Exports Total stocks

2008/09 147 0 6 69 815 502 192 694 121

U.S. Department of Commerce.

15

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 7--Peanuts: U.S. supply and disappearance

Supply Disappearance

Year begin. Beginning Domestic Seed & Ending

Aug. 1 stocks Imports Production Total food Crush residual Exports Total stocks

2008/09 1,031 86 5 ,162 6,280 2,571 445 407 727 4,150 2,130

2009/101 2,130 72 3 ,688 5,890 2,675 435 360 592 4,062 1,829

2010/112 1,829 60 3 ,962 5,851 2,754 480 420 590 4,244 1,607

1 Estimated. 2 Forecast.

Sources: Crop P roduction and Peanut Stock s and P rocessing, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture and C ensus Bureau, U.S. Department of C ommerce.

16

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 8--Oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers

year

1999/00 4.63 89.00 7 .53 7.82 25.40 3.79

2000/01 4.54 105.00 6 .89 6.71 27.40 3.30

2001/02 4.38 90.50 9 .62 8.77 23.40 4.29

2002/03 5.53 101.00 1 2.10 10.60 18.20 5.77

2003/04 7.34 117.00 1 2.10 10.60 19.30 5.88

2004/05 5.74 107.00 1 3.70 10.70 18.90 8.07

2005/06 5.66 9 6.00 1 2.10 9.62 1 7.30 5 .94

2006/07 6.43 1 11.00 1 4.50 11.90 1 7.70 5 .80

2007/08 10.10 1 62.00 2 1.70 18.30 20.50 13.00

2008/09 9.97 2 23.00 2 1.80 18.70 23.00 12.70

2009/10 9.59 1 58.00 1 5.20 16.20 21.70 8.10

2009/10

September 9.75 164.00 1 3.90 15.70 23.30 6.79

O ctober 9.43 157.00 1 6.20 15.30 23.70 6.78

N ovember 9.53 159.00 1 4.10 16.00 21.70 8.15

December 9.80 160.00 1 4.70 15.90 21.70 8.41

January 9.79 149.00 1 5.70 16.00 20.70 8.42

February 9.41 153.00 1 6.80 15.70 21.00 8.50

M arch 9.39 NA 1 5.80 16.50 20.60 8.82

April 9.47 NA 1 6.00 16.90 20.40 8.52

M ay 9.41 NA 1 4.90 17.00 20.50 8.31

June 9.45 NA 1 5.00 17.20 21.60 9.29

July 9.79 NA 1 5.40 17.50 21.50 10.70

August 10.10 NA 1 4.30 17.20 20.70 11.10

2010/11

September 9.98 154.00 1 7.30 17.40 20.00 10.80

NA = N ot available.

Source: Agricultural P rices, N ational Agricultural Statistics Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture.

17

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 9--U.S. vegetable oil and fats prices

Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Canola Peanut Corn Lard 6 Edible

year oil 2 oil 3 oil 4 oil 4 oil 5 oil 6 tallow 6

1999/00 15.60 21.52 16.68 17.11 35.96 17.81 13.64 13.21

2000/01 14.15 15.98 15.88 17.56 34.97 13.54 14.61 13.43

2001/02 16.46 17.98 23.25 23.45 32.23 19.14 13.55 13.87

2002/03 22.04 37.75 33.13 29.75 46.70 28.17 18.13 17.80

2003/04 29.97 31.21 33.42 33.76 60.84 28.43 26.13 22.37

2004/05 23.01 28.01 43.71 30.78 53.63 27.86 21.80 18.48

2005/06 23.41 29.47 40.64 31.00 44.48 25.18 21.74 18.16

2006/07 31.02 35.70 58.03 40.57 52.99 31.80 28.43 27.32

2007/08 52.03 73.56 91.15 65.64 94.53 69.40 40.85 41.68

2008/09 32.16 37.10 50.24 39.54 78.49 32.75 26.72 25.47

2009/10 35.95 40.27 52.80 42.88 59.62 39.29 31.99 32.26

2010/111 42.5-46.5 47.0-51.0 59.5-63.5 49.5-53.5 69.5-73.5 46.0-50.0 37.5-41.5 36.5-40.5

2009/10

O ctober 33.15 37.90 52.20 41.55 51.20 37.59 25.75 27.63

N ovember 36.59 40.69 53.00 44.38 52.00 38.12 30.07 29.65

December 36.81 41.40 52.00 42.90 52.20 40.02 28.75 29.99

January 34.88 39.00 52.00 40.56 59.00 40.34 28.60 29.48

February 34.69 39.13 52.00 41.88 59.50 37.54 28.25 29.42

March 36.39 39.88 51.25 42.50 58.75 38.37 32.95 33.73

April 37.11 38.75 51.60 42.20 63.60 38.50 33.95 35.14

May 35.41 37.38 52.50 40.00 67.63 38.50 34.24 35.33

June 34.47 40.00 55.75 40.00 67.75 38.93 32.98 35.72

July 35.07 42.45 53.60 44.00 67.80 39.29 31.42 32.50

August 37.57 43.69 53.75 47.19 68.38 41.48 33.33 33.54

September 39.21 43.00 54.00 47.38 68.81 42.85 43.59 35.02

2010/11

October1 44.02 47.20 56.00 51.45 71.40 47.50 46.64 37.00

1 Preliminary. 2 Decatur, IL. 3 PBSY Greenwood, M S. 4 M idwest. 5 Southeast mills. 6 C hicago.

NA= N ot available.

Sources: Monthly Feedstuff Prices , Agricultural Marketing Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture.

18

Oil Crops Outlook/OCS-10k/Nov 10, 2010

Economic Research Service, USDA

Table 10--U.S. oilseed meal prices

Marketing Soybean Cottonseed Sunflower Peanut Canola Linseed

year meal 2 meal 3 meal 4 meal 5 meal 6 meal 7

1999/00 167.62 127.43 75.00 108.15 117.07 103.42

2000/01 173.62 142.93 90.50 119.75 139.20 121.92

2001/02 167.72 136.16 87.27 112.32 143.33 121.29

2002/03 181.58 146.12 105.00 128.35 144.06 122.91

2003/04 256.05 183.47 111.14 177.56 188.45 159.25

2004/05 182.90 124.04 85.50 118.34 139.75 115.55

2005/06 1 74.17 144.27 7 7.46 106.98 1 40.52 1 15.53

2006/07 2 05.44 150.36 1 04.88 1 00.00 1 73.50 1 33.01

2007/08 3 35.94 253.81 1 72.81 NA 2 51.32 2 28.81

2008/09 3 31.17 255.23 1 52.46 NA 2 48.82 2 20.89

2009/10 3 11.27 220.90 1 51.04 NA 2 24.92 2 09.23

2010/111 310-350 215-255 175-215 NA 240-280 235-275

2008/09

O ctober 260.66 238.75 161.13 NA 192.55 160.75

N ovember 267.37 225.00 146.88 NA 217.99 164.00

December 268.24 229.50 150.00 NA 228.62 189.60

January 306.85 237.50 164.38 NA 279.23 248.75

February 297.42 236.25 161.88 NA 243.30 270.00

M arch 292.22 213.00 134.38 NA 217.02 231.88

April 324.27 212.50 130.00 NA 230.06 233.50

M ay 380.37 236.25 141.25 NA 287.99 263.13

June 418.47 306.00 187.50 NA 325.48 250.00

July 373.18 305.00 170.63 NA 261.55 226.88

August 405.27 315.00 147.50 NA 277.30 217.00

September 379.68 308.00 134.00 NA 224.74 195.20

2009/10

O ctober 325.69 250.00 151.88 NA 220.90 185.00

N ovember 328.18 260.00 189.38 NA 177.69 220.00

December 333.93 283.75 197.50 NA NA 256.50

January 314.23 286.25 181.88 NA 248.63 228.75

February 295.79 253.75 165.63 NA 218.18 222.50

M arch 277.61 213.00 137.50 NA 214.11 201.50

April 291.21 175.00 132.50 NA 226.95 200.83

M ay 287.85 171.25 120.50 NA 222.28 202.75

June 305.78 176.00 109.50 NA 224.56 189.50

July 325.56 183.75 120.00 NA 245.18 199.38

August 331.76 198.00 141.20 NA 244.44 204.00

September 317.65 200.00 165.00 NA 231.20 200.00

2009/10

O ctober1 321.92 225.31 1 90.63 NA 251.03 208.75

1 Preliminary. 2 Hi-pro Decatur, IL. 3 41% M emphis. 4 34% N orth Dakota-Minnesota.

5 50% Southeast mills. 6 36% Pacific N orthwest. 7 34% M inneapolis. NA= N ot available.

Source: Monthly F eedstuff Prices, Agricultural M arketing Service,

U.S. Department of Agriculture.